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Today 23rd March marks the first anniversary of the first national lockdown and the Nation observed a minute’s silence at 12noon to remember all those who have died from the COVID virus. That puts football sharply into focus.
Now anyone (including myself) who thought that we would be safe from the threat of relegation needs to be aware that we are firmly in the brown and pungent.
Defeat to a poor Port Vale side at the weekend really brought it home that we are struggling like never before. The goals have dried up, the performances are poor and if it were not for the fact that Southend and Grimsby are both woeful, we would already be staring at the prospect of another spell outside of the football league. Not a pleasant thought. The club has been advancing backwards for the last 5 years and we face a real scrap if we are to survive.
The elation following the Carlisle victory (they were as woeful when we played them at the JSCS as they were good at Brunton Park earlier in the season) has long dissipated and I am sorry but losing to Port Vale after the recent draws against Grimsby and Salford City has signified that we are quite simply appalling at present. One win in the last 20 games says it all unfortunately.
Barrow have shown how it is done with recent results giving them a way out of the mire. Our task is simple now. We must better Southend and Grimsby’s results to stay up.
Remaining Fixtures:
Tranmere H Bradford H Bolton A Barrow H Oldham A Walsall H Southend H Cheltenham A Salford H Tranmere A
Tranmere under the guidance of Keith Hill come to the JSCS just outside the automatic promotion places and this will be another tough game, but then so were Marine!
It is so depressing and downbeat at present.
WB has as Interim Head Coach the opportunity to walk away at the end of the season if we do go down. Long suffering supporters do not have that luxury. We have to somehow find more enthusiasm to hang in there and show belief in the team.
Prior to the Port Vale game, I thought that we would be safe, I am not so sure now. Ten games to save our season. Potentially 30 points and we still need 15 points from those 30 available to be absolutely safe. Grim times indeed.
I would definitely bring Samson Tovide into the 18-man squad and give him 20 minutes game time.
Otherwise, the only change would be to bring Cowan-Hall into the side in place of Chilvers, not because the youngster is playing badly but Cowan-Hall offers experience where it is needed.
Tranmere have veteran David Nugent in their ranks and will offer a sterner challenge than the Valiants did.
Weather tonight 6 degrees Celsius and dry with clear conditions. The pitch has had some ideal conditions to recover, and it is pleasing to see more dry weather.
Now I have never predicted a Colchester defeat and I am not going to start today so let us try for a 1-0 home victory with Jevani Brown getting back into the scoring charts!
Given the fact we were two up, a draw is a bit of a disappointment. On a more realistic view a draw is a good result and has done us no harm. Hopefully this is the start of better performances to come.
Excellent point against another good side - that was one of the better performances I've seen in the last four months, credit to Robbie if bringing Legend Joe in alongside Legend Wayne has made the difference.
Still 7pts clear of the drop, and now one place higher up the table. Is it Yazz time yet?
Two points dropped, given the timing of the chances . Not many games will be this open till the end of the season, unless we score first in matches . Clearance ball still too shabby and sometimes ball went backwards far to easy from good forward positions .
Two points dropped, given the timing of the chances . Not many games will be this open till the end of the season, unless we score first in matches . Clearance ball still too shabby and sometimes ball went backwards far to easy from good forward positions .
From 2-0 up you'd think so, but they should have been in the lead long before we scored, but for an instinctive Gerken point-blank stop. End to end chances that both sides should have converted after that - Wiredu played a blinder, but will disappointed he didn't have a hat-trick, and Senior had an excellent game too. I won't argue with their penalty, my biggest complaint was why our identical claim in the second half wasn't given?
Overall though, I have to disagree that this was 2pts dropped. It was just a very decent point in a match that either side could rightfully claim they should have won.
It was our first and only shot (albeit two in one after Brown fluffed it). Before that Tranmere had four good chances and 69% possession. But we seem to be gaining confidence since then. How did Wiredhu miss? We do seem to play better against better teams. Maybe in their ambition they leave us more space. Fingers crossed for a good second half. Win this and another three points after and I think that might leave us relatively safe. In most seasons, 46 is enough to stay in Division Two.
In the last 10 full seasons teams have been relegated with 46 points or more on five occasions including two of the last three. Bristol Rovers were relegated with 50 and Barnet with 51!
Out of those 20 clubs relegated 14 remain non league or no longer exist, four are in League Two and two are in League One. We cannot go down as it could be a long, long road back.
In the last 10 full seasons teams have been relegated with 46 points or more on five occasions including two of the last three. Bristol Rovers were relegated with 50 and Barnet with 51!
Out of those 20 clubs relegated 14 remain non league or no longer exist, four are in League Two and two are in League One. We cannot go down as it could be a long, long road back.
You're not wrong, but I would also argue that those seasons 2012/13 and 2013/14 were significant exceptions when 52 and 51 points respectively (or one less and a better goal difference) were needed to escape relegation. The average for survival from the remaining 10 ten seasons going back to 2007/08 was 43 points, even including those two it's 45 points.
Stats aren't everything though (they are, after all, worse than damn lies) - the reality is we have to stay seven points clear of the highest placed of the bottom two sides. At present that's Southend, though Grimsby do have a game in hand. Goal difference as it stands means that in effect either of them need 8 points more than the U's over the next 9/10 games.
Forgetting Barrow for now as an irrelevance in our bid for survival, that means Southend or Grimsby have to average approximately two points per game from now to the end, plus overturn a -11/-12 goal difference, to overtake us. That of course assumes we continue to progress(?) at our slightly better than one point per game rate.
Again, forgetting Barrow (apart from the indignity, it really doesn't matter if they overtake us - and they probably will on their form), Grimsby are actually the form side of those in the relegation mix, undefeated in their last five with seven points. But even if they manage to continue that form through to the end of the season, that's 14 more points to give them 45pts. Enough to overtake the U's for sure, but only if we slip below our terrible just over 1pt per game average?
Four or five more points, from anywhere, ought to do it for the U's.
Based on what you say we really do need another 12 points from our remaining games. A tough call based on our last 20 but somehow they have to be extracted. A few tough games still left and we just seem unable to get a win. Saturday will not be an easy game but oh how a win would help our cause.
From 2-0 up you'd think so, but they should have been in the lead long before we scored, but for an instinctive Gerken point-blank stop. End to end chances that both sides should have converted after that - Wiredu played a blinder, but will disappointed he didn't have a hat-trick, and Senior had an excellent game too. I won't argue with their penalty, my biggest complaint was why our identical claim in the second half wasn't given?
Overall though, I have to disagree that this was 2pts dropped. It was just a very decent point in a match that either side could rightfully claim they should have won.
Unfortunately we were unable to manage the game when in control, that was the biggest disappointment. In the grandeur scheme of things, points last Saturday obviously would have been more beneficial. However now at the business end of the season, it’s points that matter, dropping points does not.
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