QPR’s survival hopes could receive a shot in the arm, or a psychological blow, depending on the result of a game in hand at home to Tottenham on Saturday.

Queens Park Rangers (18th) v Tottenham Hotspur (7th)

The revelation little more than a week ago that QPR had, contrary to all expectations, lost only £9.8m following their relegation from the Premier League brought a mixture of raised eyebrows and belly laughs.

In a short statement the club said that costs had been reduced by £22m and on the face of it, if that £9.8m is accepted by the Football League as a genuine figure, then reports of cataclysmic fines for Financial Fair Play rule breaches and potential expulsion from the league if they’re not paid were typically sensationalist drivel.

We await the full set of accounts from Companies House but in the meantime the basic maths of this tell us plenty. QPR lost £65m in 2012/13 while in the Premier League on income of £60m and expenditure of £126m. That outlay has apparently come down by £22m, but then so has the income as Rangers were on a vastly inferior television deal in the Championship. QPR should have reported a loss of between £60m and £70m, as they had in the two other full seasons under Tony Fernandes’ chairmanship, just as everybody said they would. That hole in the accounts seems almost certain to have been covered by the board’s decision to “write off” £60m worth of debt.

The Financial Fair Play rules punish and reward the profit and loss account, which ordinarily a £60m write-off or gift from the board and owners would not go through. QPR seem, and we haven’t yet seen the accounts so we don’t know for sure, to be trying to push that write-off through the profit and loss account as an “extraordinary item” to avoid the fine. It’s a fudge basically. But don’t for one minute think the family solicitor and accountants that doubles up as a bureau de change and laundrette on the Uxbridge Road is dealing with this. QPR’s owners will have their best people on it, and it remains to be seen whether the Football League can match the wherewithal and stomach for that fight. Even if they can, they’ve already admitted the rules QPR are being judged under are flawed and have since been changed.

You could be cynical about this. You could worry that rich businessmen don’t get rich in business by writing off £60m very often, and wonder what the club’s owners may take to cover that — keep an eye on the ownership of Loftus Road. You could say it’s another PR move and attention deflector from a chairman who has presided over zero improvement in QPR for a colossal outlay. An expensive PR move maybe, but QPR are never going to be in a position to pay £60m back to anybody and the money is already spent. People are still happy to blame Mark Hughes, Harry Redknapp, Phillip Beard and others before they get to Fernandes, who still has his name sung at matches.

But I feel that to do so in this instance would be to turn into Richard Littlejohn, sitting at the back and throwing bottles, as he puts it, regardless of what’s happening and without offering anything constructive. Having sat here and written “write some of it off then” when Fernandes has maintained that the money is owed to the club’s board members personally and nobody else, it seems wrong to sit and cast aspersions on motives or hand tricks. For now, taken at face value, it’s great news.

This idea that you can’t have things both ways need to stretch to the first team as well.

When Harry Redknapp was the manager he was criticised for never picking a youth team graduate in the senior side. When Chris Ramsey picked Darnell Furlong from the start against Arsenal and he was subsequently caught out a time or two by the World Class Alexis Sanchez I saw comments like “not the time to be blooding youngsters”. Quite apart from ignoring the fact that Isla was unfit and Onuoha had to play centre half, leaving Furlong our only option, it also implies that there are Premier League games where you can sling kids in confident they won’t end up against a quality player.

Somebody on the Twitter post-Arsenal said to me the club had been foolish for not spending more money on more players in January. Harry Redknapp spent more than £60m on 21 players across four transfer windows and left behind a squad with no left wingers, no cover at full back, one player who can score and one target man who can’t finish the matches. It takes some pretty weird thinking to believe that the solution is to give Redknapp some more money for some more players.

The talk of “no more cheque book” and “clear pathways” for young players is brilliant, and exactly what the club has needed for sometime. But this isn’t going to be an overnight thing. Universally QPR fans would agree that we’re sick of seeing us spend £10m on Sandro when he has no knees, or giving out £80,000 a week contracts to midfielders who can’t pass the ball, or signing two strikers from Fulham on colossal wages who have half a knee and two bad hips between them. We’re sick of our own home-grown players not being given a chance. We want to see money spent carefully, players acquired imaginatively from lower leagues or abroad or youth teams. But none of this is instant stuff.

The incessant 24 hour coverage football gets is not good for a club apparently trying to make the changes QPR are. One defeat is a problem, two defeats is a big problem, three defeats is a full on crisis and four defeats gets you the sack. Social media exacerbates this. A fortnight ago after the Man Utd home game, you could have killed a whole woodland trying to print out all the Tweets and message board posts saying Eduardo Vargas was “fucking useless”. After Arsenal on Wednesday, you could have done likewise with the output asking why Vargas and Mauro Zarate weren’t used, because this time it was Niko Kranjcar’s fault.

Most would accept that QPR need solid foundations and long term planning. A big hindrance in that has been the constant string of relegation or promotion battles the club has fought over the past five years. It’s difficult to make long term plans when your house is on fire, and QPR have been fire fighting for some time now. In that respect a relegation — with the caveat that the board would need to stomach another substantial loss, and the Premier League TV money means Rangers would have to get back quickly or not come back at all — might not be a terrible thing. Stay up, by the skin of our teeth, and the fire fighting will merely begin again in August.

Either way, stay up or go down, if the club is actually serious about this new strategy under Les Ferdinand then this short termism has to stop from the supporters as well. Chris Ramsey wasn’t a genius for winning at Sunderland, and he’s not an idiot for what happened on Wednesday. This will probably get worse before it gets better.

What do we want? A sustainably built first team of fit, well scouted players, backed up by wonderful facilities, a productive youth set up and a club ethos we can be proud of, playing in the Premier League. When do we want it? Absolutely immediately.

It's not practical and if it does happen, it’s not going to happen like that.

Links >>> Pochettino turns tide — opposition profile >>> Obvious progress despite Wembley defeat — interview >>> Wilkins’ diving header — history >>> Pawson in charge — referee

Saturday

Tottenham played the same team on Wednesday against Swansea as they did in the League Cup final defeat on Sunday. Expect some rotation here.

Referee: New Premier League referee Craig Pawson is the man in the middle for this one. This is his third QPR game of the season at Loftus Road and he’s given the R’s a penalty in both of his previous visits. We can only hope for more of that, and a repeat of the 3-2 win against West Brom when he last crossed out path. Full case history here.

Form

Spurs: QPR will hope that the key stat on Spurs’ slate is the sheer weight of fixtures they’ve had lately — five matches in 17 days, including a League Cup final and a two-legged Europa League defeat against Fiorentina. Will a sixth game in that period be a game too far? Tottenham have played 47 times already this season, more than any other top flight side. Confidence may also be on the wane because of the results in that rush of games — the 3-2 home win against Swansea on Wednesday, which could easily have been a draw but for the work of goalkeeper Hugo Lloris, was Spurs’ first win in six attempts meaning for all the football and travelling they lost the League Cup final to Chelsea and crashed out of Europe in Italy. They’ve actually only won three of the last ten in all comps. However, away from home they’ve been dangerous — winning six times in the league at West Brom, Leicester, Swansea, Hull, Villa and West Ham. Tottenham have picked up 16 points from losing positions this year — the league’s best record.

Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells us…
“Short and sweet from me this week as there is a price available that as a QPR fan needs to be backed. I'm not going to discuss team selection or the merits of different formations - the simple fact is, from a statisticians point of view, Tottenham have conceded in nine of their last ten games. A price of 4/9 is available for QPR to score in this fixture which equates to approximately a 70% chance of scoring. Charlie Austin has scored more than 50% of QPR goals this season and also scored in more than 50% of QPR's home matches, meaning based on the 69% chance of scoring, if you attribute half of that percentage to Charlie Austin's chances of scoring, it arrives at about a price of 7/4. However, Betfair are currently offering 23/10 for Charlie Austin to Score anytime which gives us about a 6% edge on the price it should be. It’s definitely worth a bet.”

Recommended Bet: Charlie Austin to score Anytime @ 23/10 with Betfair.

Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion WestonSuperR, fresh from a correct call on Wednesday night, tells us…

“With a dip in performance plus injuries and suspensions, Chris Ramsey has a tough job at the moment. Junior Holiett aside I thought he picked a good starting 11 on Wednesday night and for the first half at least everything seemed to be going quite well. The second half was worrying and we will need a big improvement against Spurs to get the three points we so desperately need.

“There were plenty of positives to take from Wednesday but Hoilett has had enough chances now and surely everyone can see that Niko Kranjcar is still so unfit and was so embarrassingly off the pace that he should not play for us again. I am staggered that Chris Ramsey played him, especially against a quick pacey side like Arsenal - a shocking mistake in an otherwise fairly promising managerial start with us.

“I was hoping to see far more balls into the box for Bobby and Austin from Holiett and Phillips on Wednesday and if we are going to cause Spurs problems this must be the priority for Saturday’s match. I’d switch Hoilett for Vargas or Zarate on the left, not their natural positions I know but we are running out of options and Hoilett has been awful this season.

“Spurs have been good away from White Hart Lane and had a decent win against Swansea on Wednesday evening, so are a tough proposition. I am expecting a similar match to the Arsenal one and having sadly got the prediction correct on Wednesday I am expecting a similar match whilst hoping for a different result. My prediction remains the same as Wednesday though.”

John’s Prediction: QPR 1-2 Spurs. Scorer — Charlie Austin

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Spurs. Scorer — Charlie Austin

The Twitter @loftforwords

Pictures — Action Images

Photo: Action Images

AgedR added 23:57 - Mar 6 Thanks Clive, I'm half pissed, but that sounds spot on
0

deejay1952 added 00:36 - Mar 7 it hardly seems fair since the chavs have been financial doping for years.. ever since they've been owned by russia. (similar to mansh&tty being owned by UAE
0

ozexile added 06:04 - Mar 7 I can see this being same as arsenal. Play well and hold them for an hour then narrow defeat. We're running out of games.
0

OldPedro added 09:18 - Mar 7 Good Article Clive - "What do we want? A sustainably built first team of fit, well scouted players, backed up by wonderful facilities, a productive youth set up and a club ethos we can be proud of, playing in the Premier League. When do we want it? Absolutely immediately. " For me, the first part of this is exactly what we want and I think we all have to be realistic and accept that it will take time. I just hope that the chairman and club are serious this time and that don't panic if (as seems likely) we get relegated this season. Southampton and Swansea are often used as examples of how to build and run sustainable clubs of a similar size to us and they both took several years to get into the position they are now. Despite our league position and run of results, overall I am positive about the future with the appointment of Les Ferdinand and I think the appointment of Chris Ramsey shows a change away from the 'big name' approach the club have followed since TF took over. Heres hoping for a bright future!

0

HastingsRanger added 10:26 - Mar 7 Clive thanks. Only correction obviously caused by your autocorrect 'Joey Barton serves game two of three of his suspension for being a knob' should read 'Joey Barton serves game two of three of his suspension for feeling a knob.' Anyway, agree with you and others on today as a 1-2 reversal but strangely optimistic about the future!
0

TacticalR added 11:30 - Mar 7 Thanks for your preview. Not easy to see a way forward at the moment as we have so many injuries, and opposition teams will target the younger players who come in as replacements. We also need to try and keep Eriksen quiet.
0

francisbowles added 11:37 - Mar 7 Well said Clive, I only wish more supporters could see this, think about it and hopefully take it on board. Realism, can't undo past mistakes, lower expectations and hope we are on the right path for the longer term. What happens short term, happens, just hope CR keeps getting the effort and a few breaks go our way. The subs bench should be interesting today as we are struggling to get 18 fit players.

0

Blogs 31 bloggers

Colchester United Polls