On to Matchday #45, two games to go and as has been said several times over the last week, never could there be two more ‘must win’ games than Salford away and Barrow at home. Easter Monday was a chastening experience, bereft of so many key players, it was always going to be a struggle against a Doncaster side who hit top form just when it mattered. We can’t complain about the result, even if the third goal was a little harsh, but what about the support – loud and proud before, during and particularly after the game, it was a privilege to be part of it.
Mind you, as disappointing as it was to only get one point over Easter, we were in good company, as four of the top eight did no better. Bradford and Walsall managed two draws, but they’re beyond our reach, and apart from Doncaster, only Salford in 9th place (worryingly now appearing large in our rear view mirror) managed to win a game. With those results, the mini-league has somewhat opened up, with not just Grimsby but Notts County and AFC Wimbledon, both on poor runs of form, within range. This review could go down as far as Crewe and Bromley, but their chances of making the play-offs are so remote for expediency I’m not going to include them.
AFC Wimbledon v Port Vale – One of the two early kick-offs today, and though I write this long before the game, it might not get posted until after this game has kicked off. The Wombles are realistically the only team who could crash the automatic promotion party, but the way they’re playing at the moment, they could still conceivably just as easily drop out of the play-offs. Particularly after losing to a Gbode strike at Gillingham on Easter Monday. Their final away game is at Grimsby, which won’t ease their nerves.
Port Vale will be determined to take advantage of that poor form and consolidate their chance for at least automatic promotion, and despite a poor Easter are still top of the League 2 form table. A win today, and if Walsall don’t beat Accrington Stanley, will guarantee that promotion. However, it will be a tough game, and my money’s on a hard-fought score draw that doesn’t really help either team but may help Matt Macey’s hunt for the League 2 Golden Glove award. Forecast: AFC Wimbledon 1 Port Vale 1
Harrogate Town v Notts County – Not sure of the reasoning for this, but although it is another early kick-off, this one starts at 1pm? On paper you’d think it should be three points for Notts County, with Harrogate hovering (safely) just above the relegation zone. But nothing is guaranteed, Notts County are on a poor run of form, with just one point from their last four games, and Harrogate remarkably have the best current form at home, with six wins and four draws over the last ten games.
This one is going to be a bit of a struggle for Notts County, and Harrogate will want to continue that home form in their last game this season at Wetherby Road. Nerves will play a part too I expect, with Notts County’s faltering promotion challenge leaving them in reach of all four teams below them. Forecast: Harrogate Town 2 Notts County 1
MK Dons v Grimsby Town – Despite my feelings about MK Dons and their dubious right to even exist, my hypocrisy will know no bounds if MK Dons can at least hold Grimsby to a draw. And despite their lowly position, under new manager Paul Warne they’ll be determined to try and end a dismal campaign with a home win, not least for those playing for a potential new contract in the summer.
Having slipped in and out of 7th place several times in recent weeks, including throwing two goal leads away twice in the last three games (interspersed by a 4-0 thrashing from Swindon), Grimsby know that with their poor goal difference anything less than a win will leave them vulnerable to the chasing pack. Their away form is good though, with four wins and three draws in the last eight. I think MK Dons can do it, but my head says another score draw Forecast: MK Dons 2 Grimsby 2
Salford City v Colchester United – A double-header/ proverbial six-pointer. Of the chasing pack, Salford arguably have the slightly better form, after comfortably consigning Morecambe to guaranteed relegation on Easter Monday. That being said, their home form is nothing worse than atrocious, with just three points from the last six home games.
As for the U’s, everything hinges on whether we get any of our missing players back, and particularly Jack Payne. We know Lyle and Owura are definitely out, and Jamie McDonnell sounds dubious, but even a reasonably fit Jack Payne will make such a difference to our fortunes. What I am certain about is whoever makes up the squad for today, they’ll run through walls for the U’s, roared on by another excellent away following. Forecast: Salford 0 Colchester United 2
Chesterfield v Morecambe – and finally the one I’m most worried about. With already relegated Morecambe today, and then away at Accrington Stanley next Saturday, Chesterfield have on paper the easiest run-in. They also have comfortably the best goal difference and goals scored of the chasing pack (only Doncaster have scored more this season).
It actually came as somewhat of a (pleasant) surprise that they didn’t pick up a win over Easter, but coming back from 3-1 down to snatch an injury-time equaliser at home to Bradford City would have felt like a win. Only Morecambe stand in their way today, and whilst I’d like to think The Shrimps can kind of relax now that the inevitable has happened, I can’t see them getting anything from the game. It’s kind of a shame, after 18 years in the Football League, with the strength of the National League these days, I can’t see Morecambe returning any day soon. Forecast: Chesterfield 3 Morecambe 0
Up the U’s!
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