Saints fans have to back Nigel Adkins to get things right.

Just over a year ago the jury was very much out on Nigel Adkins, questions were being asked about his ability to manage a club like Saints after a decidely average start to his reign at St Mary's, six months later the faith in him was rewarded and Saints stormed up the league to second place and automatic promotion.

But perhaps in all the euphoria of promotion and the great start to this season perhaps it was forgotten that if last year was one in which Nigel had to make a big leap into the unknown in his managerial career, then this was is a far greater one still.

In some respects last season for Adkins was simple, of course yes he was now at a big club, far different than Scunthorpe and with much greater expectation, but the squad for promotion was already there, all he needed to do was steer it in the right direction, of course it wasnt quite as simple as that sounds, he had to do a lot of work, but in many respects Nigel could concentrate on things on the pitch and work with the best squad in League 1 bar none.

History shows that Nigel did exactly what he was brought in to do, get us up automatically, he could do no more.

The learning curve for him last season was in dealing with better quality players than he had been used too, also having the luxury of a big squad and the selection choices that brings, certainly at times he made mistakes, but he seemed to learn from them along the way, but overall he was in familiar teritory having taken Scunthorpe up from that division twice.

This season is a whole new ball game, of course he had spent a season in the Championship with Scunthorpe before, but under different circumstances altogether than he now has at Saints, back then it was working with a small squad and at best loan players like Jack Cork, he had to get the best out of them and ultimately they went down, but most would agree it wasnt the fault of the manager, merely what he had to work with.

Now he is in unfamiliar territory, the top of the Championship and with a big squad, initially the euphoria of the promotion season carried us through the early games and to the top of the league, but as many will tell you, getting to the top of a league is the easy part, staying there is the hardest and as we found out last year, its sometimes better to chase than be chased.

Nigel now finds himself in a dilemma, the blunt facts are we are on a downward slide, of course it could be said that after our great start that would always be the case, we could not hope to maintain a 100% home record, that being the case i have always maintained that our target for this season, indeed any season to get promotion would be an average of two points per game, our problem now is for a long time we havent been maintaing that.

This issnt a knee jerk reaction after two back to back defeats, this is something that has been happening for a long time, our poor away record being the first sign of problems, but the trend of the past few months is not good, short term over six games its 5 points from 6, medium term its just about acceptable 21 from 12 games, longer term its 30 from 18, so being blunt for 3/4 of the season we havent been maintaining that two points per game average, we are being totally propped up by those opening seven games  where we took 18 points.

Yes of course we are still top of the league, but whilst our rivals for promotion are starting to gather momentum as we did last year, we are losing ground, we might be top now, but unless something changes immediately then we could be in trouble, defeat at Forest would almost certainly see us removed from top spot and could se us drop to fourth.

There is no doubt that something is wrong on the pitch, maybe its the team spirit, certainly when we went down to ten men at Brighton we looked beaten before Rickie Lambert had reached the dressing room, you could tell this wasnt a team about to roll up its sleeves and grind out a result, selection wise and substitutions have cost us and so have our tactics that at times are too one dimensional, some would say injuries and suspensions, I would say not, injury wise we have been quite lucky, we have a big squad we just havent utilised it as well as we should have done.

So Nigel needs to look back at last season and see what he did when we had a blip in January, what he needs to do is go back to basics again, at Brighton we complicated things too much in midfield, for whatever reasons we were already making three changes in the line up, we didnt need to confuse things further by a reshuffle in not only where people were playing in the midfield but how we were playing 

Secondly we need to be shooting a lot more, the players seem to want to pass the ball right up to the goal line, last season we scored a lot of goals from outside the box, players werent scared to have a shot, this season we have rarely scored from outside the area, indeed most of our goals seem to come from dead ball situations or crosses into the box, now there is nothing wrong with this, but we do need to vary it sometimes.

Professional footballers are not comfortable with change in the main, OK at the top level they have the technical skill to adapt, but at our standard not so much, the players in our squad will want continuity as this gives them the confidence to play, certain players will feel undermined when they are constantly left out or subbed when playing well, if it aint broke then dont fix it, is a good motto to have here, but in the past two months that hasnt been applied.

But if Nigel Adkins learns his lessons well not just from this season but last as well then he is the man to take us through this dodgy period, he can get us back on the right track, get us back to winning ways and keep us in the top two, I feel he is the man for the job, why ? because he learnt his lessons last season and that saw us through then, his realtive inexperience at this level means he will have to learn along the way, but hehas shown that he can do, so wwe have to have faith in him.

Dave Merrington once said that in modern football a manager is only ever six games from the threat of the sack, whether he has been at a club for five years or just arrived, how well he is doing the job is based on his last six games, now i dont think that Nigel is under that threat, nor do i think he should be, but Merrington's analogy of the situation is a good barometer what is a blip or a crisis, Im sure that in Nigel we have the man to turn what is at the moment a blip, albeit a big one away from a crisis, but our promotion hopes lay in the next six games, if we continue our present form then automatic promotion will slip away and indeed i would worry about our chances to stay in the play off spots let alone win them, if we hit that two point ratio per game, then we are back on track and the season could be very interesting.                   

Photo: Action Images

theallseeingeye added 12:32 - Jan 4 Nigel Adkins has proved he is a good manager, we need to stay on side and let him and the team develop and learn, even if there are a few blips along the way. The best teams in the land have long serving managers, I hope we are one of those teams.
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ThermosNBlanket added 12:32 - Jan 4 The only problem I have is your comment about a big squad....if its that big why did we have Forte and Reeves as subs? Forte couldnt get a game at Preston. Reeves coming on says all it needed to about Holmes. Adkins was doing well up to the Chaplow injury - since then he hasn't got a formula and many decisons wrong IMO. Morgan behind the striker at Doncaster was baffling, leaving Guly on at Fratton, playing Morgan right side in several games. We looked back to our best the first half at Brighton but the sending off changed it all - coupled with more shocking goalkeeping handed it to Brighton. This transfer window is key - not sure what to think of the Lee signing - although it seems to meet the criteria...cheap...is the money there that we think should be?

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tell101 added 12:47 - Jan 4 I particularily agree with your point about shooting. I have seen a number of instances where we get a split second to shoot or we wait, think and pass. Usually when we do that we get crowded out and the moment is gone. I love the passing football we do now but there are times when, if you can see the goal and its the better option you should have the confidence and backing to have a go. Teams have analysised our play now and we need to have a few more options to mix things up. We had the best start, mostly due to the pre season fitness campaign in my opinion. I would like us to add more pace to our passing game and start to pick out the runners. Many times we have made good attacking runs but the player with the ball has taken the short 'pass it around' option. Thats great for posession but doesnt give us the clinical penertration we are lacking

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simmo400 added 12:56 - Jan 4 tell101 must agree with all you said. Bristol showed the way in shooting from midfield on a wet greasy surface and were unlucky not to have scored twice from it. It was so obvious we need to shoot more. Bristol also showed the cutting edge we lacked in our midfield passing. Nick the next 6 games will not determine this season either. All the game will. Cant see why you target 6 or whatever games. One at a time will do for me. Perhaps Puncheon will play in the FA cup saturday, not only to prove a point to Nigel but also to put hinself once again in the shop window. For whatever reason if he plays I hope he has a blinder. He could be just what we need in midfield, quick and able to shoot.

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eusebio added 12:59 - Jan 4 "Saints fans have to back Nigel Adkins to get things right" I must of missed something everybody I speak to thinks Nigel is doing a great job.......Top of the League......FFS
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richardmdcooper added 13:01 - Jan 4 Good article..I trust NA to get it sorted. Hopefully this Lee chap is decent.
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VeloSaint added 13:28 - Jan 4 This article just highlights how expectations have been driven upwards this season and credit to Adkins and his team for it. What was a very good league one squad has had only relatively few additions and in reality suffered a major loss (Oxo). Yet they're top of the league at the halfway stage and to not go up this season will be seen as a big failure. No doubt there will be calls for Adkins to go and a more 'experienced' manager to come in should that happen (utter madness). If the sentiment of the article is indeed to back the manager (and I'm not sure it entirely is) then I agree 100%.

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Saintpaul120 added 14:13 - Jan 4 "" Secondly we need to be shooting a lot more, the players seem to want to pass the ball right up to the goal line, last season we scored a lot of goals from outside the box, players werent scared to have a shot, this season we have rarely scored from outside the area, indeed most of our goals seem to come from dead ball situations or crosses into the box, now there is nothing wrong with this, but we do need to vary it sometimes."" Agree with this totally. I trust Nigel Adkins to get us promoted. I spooke with a BHA fan of long standing after the game. He told me he felt Adkins had the qualifications for the England job - eventually of course. He was serious!

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SaintNick added 14:19 - Jan 4 The sentiment of the article is to back the manager, dont let anyone think otherwise, the problem is if i put up recent statistics they dont make good reading, but in the long term i think Nigel will get it right I certainly hope so Simmo, the reason I target six games is that gives a reasonable time scale to judge rather than one offs, in the case of building a run we have to take one at a time, but overall its form over the last six that tells us how we are playing

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SaintNick added 14:20 - Jan 4 The sentiment of the article is to back the manager, dont let anyone think otherwise, the problem is if i put up recent statistics they dont make good reading, but in the long term i think Nigel will get it right I certainly hope so Simmo, the reason I target six games is that gives a reasonable time scale to judge rather than one offs, in the case of building a run we have to take one at a time, but overall its form over the last six that tells us how we are playing

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1962saint added 14:39 - Jan 4 I agree with the point about more shots. I feel that a few midfielders who should be contributing to scoring have lost a bit of confidence mainly Cork, Schneiderlin, and (surprisingly) Lallana. It's great to watch great passing moves through the opposition defence but sometimes when it's not working you have to consider Plan B. When did Saints last score a goal like the second Brighton one? The new signing from Japan, Tadanari Lee, may well improve in the shots at goal. Looking at his goals on Youtube he scores from all areas with both feet (and with headers). Worth looking at the goal celebrations too! I think with with him settled in and Chaplow back, Saints will start winning a lot of games in the second half of the season.

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Jackflash1975 added 14:55 - Jan 4 No team is perfect and because we win more than we lose its a bit gutting when we do lose. This is what fans of bigger clubs feel like. I dont mind feelimg like that as its better than going to game feeling we are on a hiding to nothing. NA and the team have done what hasnt been done for a while. What will be will be. Trust is very important for all.
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SaintNick50 added 17:03 - Jan 4 I like Nigel, in his interviews you can see how much it hurts when we lose. He is consistent in that he does not discuss team selection leading up to a game and doesn't talk about transfer speculation. (I am surprised the Club has released a statement about Tadanari Lee, before he has signed on the dotted line, presume it is because he is comming from Japan). However, he now faces a very stern test as a blip has almost turned into a slump. Early in the season all his tactical changes seemed to come off, just lately I haven't beeen quite so confident in his decision making although in his defence we have had injuries and suspensions to deal with. Personally I would like to see a lot more of Lee Holmes. What has happened to Barney, is he still injured? The January transfer window will be the acid test of his managerial skills, I am sure he will be allowed funds, will he spend them wisely? We will find out on 28 April. Nottingham Forest could be a must win game! TOGETHER AS ONE!

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Whatsforpud added 21:02 - Jan 4 I also agree with the points made here about shooting. If we are not careful, the clever passing of the ball can turn in to passing the buck. It is often easier to pass it sideways to a teammate than committing yourself in having a go, and risk failing. I would have thought that the midfielders should be aiming to score at least 5 or 6 each in a season. If that is right, they have some catching up to do.

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moran89thmin added 02:44 - Jan 7 Nigel is the man for SFC - no question. When he came here we were 22nd in Div 3 and going nowhere, now we are top of Div 2. OK we have had a few bad results but no one wins all their games. Have a bit of faith in the gaffer he knows what has to be done. Lee will be a diamond and there will be others to follow... COYS.
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