| Play-off permutations 16:37 - May 2 with 1635 views | BlueStripes |
There are 2 play-off spots up for grabs and the bottom line is we HAVE to beat Yeovil, anything less than a win means we won't finish in the top 7 anyway, whatever the other teams do. So we have to start on the assumption we're going to win which means we can forget about anything the clubs below us do because they won't be able to catch us anyway (unless Wycombe beat Cambridge by at least 6 clear goals, which ain't gonna happen!) Also I think it's a fairly safe bet that Blackpool will take one of the spots with an almost certain home win against Orient (gawd bless 'em!) and their vastly superior goal difference. That leaves only Carlisle, Stevenage and Cambridge that we realistically have to worry about. Carlisle will have to win their away match at Exeter to stay ahead of us, a draw won't be good enough. That looks like a tricky match for them. Likewise Stevenage will have to win their home match against Accrington to stay ahead of us. That looks achievable on paper but they've lost form in recent weeks, so fingers crossed. That leaves Cambridge who will have to win their away game at Wycombe, a possibility but it won't be easy for them. If they do, then we will have to beat Yeovil by one goal more than Cambridge beat Wycombe to finish above them. Again, this seems do-able for us.
So it's all a bit complicated and the chances of all these results going our way is pretty remote, but I'm sure we'd have all settled for such an exciting end to the season back in November when we were second bottom and staring the National League in the face!
Come on you U's! |  | | |  |
| Play-off permutations on 17:18 - May 2 with 1625 views | durham_exile |
Blue stripes - all I would add to your excellent assessment is Colchester to play Luton Town in the Semi-final and Exeter in the Final!
Up the U's |  |
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| Play-off permutations on 19:48 - May 2 with 1612 views | Daniel |
If my calculations are correct, the following three things need to happen for us to finish in the playoffs:
RULE 1
We must win - if we draw, we’d need Blackpool to lose to Leyton Orient by at least 13 goals, not to mention other results going our way!
RULE 2
Only one out of Carlisle, Blackpool, and Stevenage can win - if two or more win, we can’t finish higher than 8th.
RULE 3
We need a greater goal difference -
If Cambridge win, we need to better their score by at least a goal.
If Wycombe win, they need to better our score by at least 4 goals.
These are the key fixtures:
Exeter vs CARLISLE
BLACKPOOL Vs Leyton Orient
STEVENAGE Vs Accrington
WYCOMBE Vs CAMBRIDGE |  | | |
| Play-off permutations on 20:25 - May 2 with 1603 views | wessex_exile |
I can't see Stevenage slipping up at home to Accrington, which leaves us really pinning our hopes on Orient playing a blinder and getting at least a point at Blackpool...
...provided of course Exeter don't field a team of reserves and get at least a point against Carlisle, and we win by a better margin than Cambridge, if indeed Cambridge win at all against Wycombe.
If we can get a couple of early goals on Saturday, that'll put some pressure on every one else, which is hopefully when their opponents start to capitalise? |  |
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| Play-off permutations on 00:08 - May 3 with 1574 views | mfb_cufc |
Blackpool are obviously a home banker, the only hope of getting a result from this game is that Orient are better away from home. I mean, they beat us 3-0, but that was when they put a proper team out, not the team of teenagers they put out now.
Stevenage have not won for five games, and Accrington recently went on a thirteen game undefeated run. Also Stevenage have lost ten games at home, so this is not cut and dried.
The Exeter v Carlisle game is the one I think will decide if we make the play-offs. If Exeter do put a reserve team out, their squad is not very deep, and I can only see a Carlisle win. Even if they do put a full strength side out, they will be looking after themselves, and I still think it is advantage Carlisle.
The one team I don't think will cause a problem is Cambridge. Wycombe can still go up themselves, so it is going to be a hard game for them to win. If they do win I think it will only be a single goal, and that wont be enough.
Another thing going for us is our ability to get results going our way on the last day of the season. We have recently beat Carlisle 2-0 and Preston 1-0 on the last game to avoid relegation. This is certainly a good lucky trait to have. |  |
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