| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion! on 09:06 - Jul 14 with 852 views | noah4x4 |
Sportingly shakes hands with MFB and Thrillseeker....
......open top bus parade at noon....
.....Thanks for running a great competiton Pete.
But I do feel that I got really lucky at the end, and wish to restate my concern that too much points emphasis was placed on "incidentals" in the final two matches, so devaluing earlier player predictive efforts over the previous 30 fixtures where (IMHO) a greater skill level per point available was required.
In the World Cup Final (n.b. I am using the official FIFA.Com data) I nailed 2 points for (4) yellow cards (spot on) and 2 points for (20) shots off target (spot on). But these were simply wild guesses, devoid of any predictive skill; yet these 4 credits from incidentals in one fixture represent over 10% of my total table points accumulated across a 32 game HGPL competition. I reckon that is far too much points bias on one single fixture.
Having so many points available from pure pin-sticking guesswork (IMHO) devalues the player research and skill applied in the first 30 fixtures (where only scores/results mattered). Similarly, MFB scored his final +4 only from "incidentals". I ultimately did get my nose ahead by predicting both a German and Argentina result (MFB got neither) so in that sense I feel it was the right outcome. However, this title could have been decided by mere chance. Another example (although it didn't happen here), the odds that the first substitution might have occured at half time were massive compared to it occuring during the other 89/119 minutes, and surely that is not worth 2 points when one only gets 3 points for an all correct score/result?
Also this particular World Cup Final had a remarkably low ratio of shots ON target given its high number of shots OFF target (Argentina's goal radar was awful). One might as well bet on two bugs crawling up a wall given the level of predictive skill required. I simply got lucky by nailing shots off spot on! This took zero predictive skill!
In summary, I do feel that in future HGPL competitions we should revert to having only scores (3 points) and results (1 point). Or if any "incidentals" are to apply; then they should be consistently applied for ALL games and not just the climax. Like the previously much maligned 'joker', they may distort things after sheer fluky guesswork, and albeit that we are all always embraced by the same rules, I sincerely believe that skill level integrity in HGPL competitions should be maintained by having focus only on Correct Scores/Results.
But once again, thanks to all for a great race. Look forward to the next episode.... see you in August.. |  | |  |
| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion! on 12:20 - Jul 14 with 838 views | mfb_cufc |
Congratulations Noah, worthy winner. |  |
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| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion! on 16:26 - Jul 14 with 831 views | Barsidepete |
| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion! on 09:06 - Jul 14 by noah4x4 |
Sportingly shakes hands with MFB and Thrillseeker....
......open top bus parade at noon....
.....Thanks for running a great competiton Pete.
But I do feel that I got really lucky at the end, and wish to restate my concern that too much points emphasis was placed on "incidentals" in the final two matches, so devaluing earlier player predictive efforts over the previous 30 fixtures where (IMHO) a greater skill level per point available was required.
In the World Cup Final (n.b. I am using the official FIFA.Com data) I nailed 2 points for (4) yellow cards (spot on) and 2 points for (20) shots off target (spot on). But these were simply wild guesses, devoid of any predictive skill; yet these 4 credits from incidentals in one fixture represent over 10% of my total table points accumulated across a 32 game HGPL competition. I reckon that is far too much points bias on one single fixture.
Having so many points available from pure pin-sticking guesswork (IMHO) devalues the player research and skill applied in the first 30 fixtures (where only scores/results mattered). Similarly, MFB scored his final +4 only from "incidentals". I ultimately did get my nose ahead by predicting both a German and Argentina result (MFB got neither) so in that sense I feel it was the right outcome. However, this title could have been decided by mere chance. Another example (although it didn't happen here), the odds that the first substitution might have occured at half time were massive compared to it occuring during the other 89/119 minutes, and surely that is not worth 2 points when one only gets 3 points for an all correct score/result?
Also this particular World Cup Final had a remarkably low ratio of shots ON target given its high number of shots OFF target (Argentina's goal radar was awful). One might as well bet on two bugs crawling up a wall given the level of predictive skill required. I simply got lucky by nailing shots off spot on! This took zero predictive skill!
In summary, I do feel that in future HGPL competitions we should revert to having only scores (3 points) and results (1 point). Or if any "incidentals" are to apply; then they should be consistently applied for ALL games and not just the climax. Like the previously much maligned 'joker', they may distort things after sheer fluky guesswork, and albeit that we are all always embraced by the same rules, I sincerely believe that skill level integrity in HGPL competitions should be maintained by having focus only on Correct Scores/Results.
But once again, thanks to all for a great race. Look forward to the next episode.... see you in August.. |
Integrity of the comp??
Whoa now. All you do is complain in PL comps while you collect points. You should check yourself.
I'll double-check some point totals but I used three different sources, including the Beeb to get my stats.
Excuse Me if one point total may be off... Frankly wish there had been a semifinal one-off so you had not been a factor in the final because then you would have been eliminated beforehand. Congrats on winning, regardless. [Post edited 14 Jul 2014 16:28]
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| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion! on 17:24 - Jul 14 with 821 views | Barsidepete |
| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion! on 16:26 - Jul 14 by Barsidepete |
Integrity of the comp??
Whoa now. All you do is complain in PL comps while you collect points. You should check yourself.
I'll double-check some point totals but I used three different sources, including the Beeb to get my stats.
Excuse Me if one point total may be off... Frankly wish there had been a semifinal one-off so you had not been a factor in the final because then you would have been eliminated beforehand. Congrats on winning, regardless. [Post edited 14 Jul 2014 16:28]
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Let me put this another way, Noah. You had a good season in D1 and now you're a noisy newbie in the Prem. And you've already indirectly managed to step on the toes of the PL concept Wessex has fine-tuned in his Champions League, and MFB recommended using the corners and yellow card variable .. That would be MFB, the season 12 admin, dude. Wessex' first substitution was a terrific kind of tie-breaker within the basic tie-breakers as only one PLer would collect 2 points and one other one point.
You still sound like you should have been handed the trophy after the semifinals and oh dear, you may have finished with 39 or 40 points instead. Let me go check 
By The Way, look at previous week's posts. I made it patently clear we would later stages go to a variable (pretty much identical, turns out) to Wessex Champions League point extras. So you act, albeit the champ, slighted by rules. Hm. [Post edited 14 Jul 2014 17:34]
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| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 19:47 - Jul 14 with 813 views | RSCOSWORTH |
Chill out guys, we're all friends here, well most of us are anyway.
Whilst personally I prefer just to predict the score of a match and nothing else I think it's up
to the person running the competition to set the format as they see fit, so long as people are aware from the outset.
By the way the prediction league I run at my work offers a slightly different scoring system. You get two points for a correctly predicted win, three points for a correctly predicted draw and a point for getting the goals scored by each team plus a bonus point for predicting a spot on win eg A 2-1 prediction in a game that finished 2-0 would get you three points, a 2-1 would get you five points and a 0-1 would get you one point. If you predicted 1-1 and it finishes 0-0 you get three points and five points if it finishes 1-1. |  |
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| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 21:25 - Jul 14 with 798 views | noah4x4 |
I am truly appreciative of the efforts of those that administer the various HGPLs and am merely trying to be constructive. But surely focus should be on predictions that require a degree of skill and not those that are wild guesswork? We scrapped the 'joker ' because the consensus was that it similarly invoked too much luck rather than skill and I am here provoking a similar debate (not moaning).
My predictions and points total up to and including the semi-finals was based on a logical/statistical appraisal. I think I apply this skill pretty well (twice D1 champ, Euro Cup and now World Cup winner). I screwed up when last in the Prem and was immediate relegated as I applied a different formulaic approach and am now looking forward to next season. But there is no escaping that in these last two World Cup games my points came from largely from wild guesswork.
I quite like RSC's alternative scoring system. I also don't have a problem with us using scorer's, or cards or shots as a tie-breaker. But when more points can be derived from such incidentals than from a primary spot on score then it seems to me that we have moved too far away from the fundamentals. It just doesn't feel right to me, albeit I have been a beneficiary. | | | |
| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 22:55 - Jul 14 with 794 views | gerry_us |
| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 21:25 - Jul 14 by noah4x4 |
I am truly appreciative of the efforts of those that administer the various HGPLs and am merely trying to be constructive. But surely focus should be on predictions that require a degree of skill and not those that are wild guesswork? We scrapped the 'joker ' because the consensus was that it similarly invoked too much luck rather than skill and I am here provoking a similar debate (not moaning).
My predictions and points total up to and including the semi-finals was based on a logical/statistical appraisal. I think I apply this skill pretty well (twice D1 champ, Euro Cup and now World Cup winner). I screwed up when last in the Prem and was immediate relegated as I applied a different formulaic approach and am now looking forward to next season. But there is no escaping that in these last two World Cup games my points came from largely from wild guesswork.
I quite like RSC's alternative scoring system. I also don't have a problem with us using scorer's, or cards or shots as a tie-breaker. But when more points can be derived from such incidentals than from a primary spot on score then it seems to me that we have moved too far away from the fundamentals. It just doesn't feel right to me, albeit I have been a beneficiary. |
Totally agree Noah. Surely the major factor in predictions is getting the match result correct and if possible the correct score. Points for incidentals when not even getting the correct scores seems a bit wrong to me. 
If I calculate correctly twelve extra points were available for pure guesswork when only three available for the correct score.  |  | | |
| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 23:01 - Jul 14 with 793 views | Barsidepete |
No one twists anyone's arm to be in a PL. Talk about taking a little get-us-to- August before the U's are back comp so seriously. Good grief. | |
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| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 08:23 - Jul 15 with 780 views | noah4x4 |
Thanks Gerry, I suspected that some others might feel the same.
Nobody should feel offended if/when constructive suggestions are made, as all sports and competitions will continue to innovate and hence laws/rules must develop. But here, I too felt it wrong that one could get a dozen points from pin-sticking guesswork and yet only three points from a 'spot on score' (and merely one point for a 'result').
If anybody else had (first) made this same constructive observation it might have sounded like 'sour grapes', so I felt obliged as the primary beneficiary to ackowledge that the HGPL points that ultimately took me over the (title) finish line could only have been wild guesses. Then other players may freely contribute their constructive thoughts and we might have a proper debate with the genuine best interests of this great(ist) prediction league at heart.
We did the same with the 'Joker' and the consensus then was scrap that and stick with the basics. One respects Pete's comment that this was intended to be merely just bit of fun before the serious stuff starts again in August. But these shorter competitons (Euro, World Cup etc) are taken just as seriously in the overall Happy league 'Honours' List etc.
My view is that the real HGPL skill is ONLY in predicting 'results' (win/lose/draw) and one can assess 'form', available players, home advantage, likely tactics and many other facets. Predicting (spot on) 'scores' is a bit of a guess, but assessing likely tactics can help guide one to whether a game may be settled by the odd goal/low scoring and particularly where clean sheets are likely. But as soon as we move beyond that into 'corners' and 'shots' (e.g. anything where we might have double digit numbers) we no longer have a prediction league as it has become pure pin sticking guesswork requiring no analytical skill. But perhaps closest to the number of 'yellow cards' isn't a bad idea for a tie-breaker, as some skill is required to determine if a game might be bad tempered (based on past rivalries).
But for the World Cup Final/3rd Place; we had (IMHO) moved too far away from these fundamentals. Also we adopted things that had no bearing on the previous 30 fixtures where merely a maximum of 3 points per fixture were available. Albeit that I was the ultimate beneficiary it seemed wrong to me to potentially change this competition mid-stream from being a 32 fixture league to a two game penalty shoot out. I reckon we should stick with 3 points for a correct score and 1 for a result, but RSC's alternative might be worthy of debate if we did wish to widen the scope. [Post edited 15 Jul 2014 8:27]
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| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 15:39 - Jul 15 with 759 views | Barsidepete |
Fair enough. Point taken mate. Well done winning. Wow. Get over it! You won another comp :D
..
Should have included today's Sparta Prague v Levadia, and KR Reykjavik v Celtic today to really annoy you .. Don't forget the yellows and corners  | |
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| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 17:26 - Jul 15 with 746 views | Barsidepete |
| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 08:23 - Jul 15 by noah4x4 |
Thanks Gerry, I suspected that some others might feel the same.
Nobody should feel offended if/when constructive suggestions are made, as all sports and competitions will continue to innovate and hence laws/rules must develop. But here, I too felt it wrong that one could get a dozen points from pin-sticking guesswork and yet only three points from a 'spot on score' (and merely one point for a 'result').
If anybody else had (first) made this same constructive observation it might have sounded like 'sour grapes', so I felt obliged as the primary beneficiary to ackowledge that the HGPL points that ultimately took me over the (title) finish line could only have been wild guesses. Then other players may freely contribute their constructive thoughts and we might have a proper debate with the genuine best interests of this great(ist) prediction league at heart.
We did the same with the 'Joker' and the consensus then was scrap that and stick with the basics. One respects Pete's comment that this was intended to be merely just bit of fun before the serious stuff starts again in August. But these shorter competitons (Euro, World Cup etc) are taken just as seriously in the overall Happy league 'Honours' List etc.
My view is that the real HGPL skill is ONLY in predicting 'results' (win/lose/draw) and one can assess 'form', available players, home advantage, likely tactics and many other facets. Predicting (spot on) 'scores' is a bit of a guess, but assessing likely tactics can help guide one to whether a game may be settled by the odd goal/low scoring and particularly where clean sheets are likely. But as soon as we move beyond that into 'corners' and 'shots' (e.g. anything where we might have double digit numbers) we no longer have a prediction league as it has become pure pin sticking guesswork requiring no analytical skill. But perhaps closest to the number of 'yellow cards' isn't a bad idea for a tie-breaker, as some skill is required to determine if a game might be bad tempered (based on past rivalries).
But for the World Cup Final/3rd Place; we had (IMHO) moved too far away from these fundamentals. Also we adopted things that had no bearing on the previous 30 fixtures where merely a maximum of 3 points per fixture were available. Albeit that I was the ultimate beneficiary it seemed wrong to me to potentially change this competition mid-stream from being a 32 fixture league to a two game penalty shoot out. I reckon we should stick with 3 points for a correct score and 1 for a result, but RSC's alternative might be worthy of debate if we did wish to widen the scope. [Post edited 15 Jul 2014 8:27]
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By the way, pin-sticking was not at stake. These were very difficult alternate points to be nicked. I say it for how many times now.. You won the comp. pipe down. | |
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| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 22:47 - Jul 15 with 722 views | gerry_us |
To keep us going until the start of the season how about:-
2 extra points for the start of the season for the one getting closest to the amount of individual bitches coming from Barside about those who disagree with him about "ANYTHING". Starting maybe at around FIVE and deffo be SIX by the time we all get up in the morning! | | | |
| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 14:59 - Jul 16 with 702 views | Barsidepete |
| NOAH4X4, The U'sual World Cup PL Champion on 22:47 - Jul 15 by gerry_us |
To keep us going until the start of the season how about:-
2 extra points for the start of the season for the one getting closest to the amount of individual bitches coming from Barside about those who disagree with him about "ANYTHING". Starting maybe at around FIVE and deffo be SIX by the time we all get up in the morning! |
I don't understand your point, Gerry. I was running a simple PL and now you and Noah -- who should get a room, btw -- throw me under the bus when in fact MFB suggested we add the corners and yellow cards?
Mick suggested this, you dodo! Noah probably bitches and whines about a Christmas tree, undoubtedly something wrong with that when he sees one.
Anyway, I'm no longer admin-ing anything so you're barking at the wind old boy. | |
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