| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions 09:50 - Apr 8 with 1188 views | wessex_exile |
Right then chaps, as you know the draw is as follows:
Noah4x4 v Coomster
Daniel v BFG
Fixtures:
Tue 17 Apr 2012 - Bayern Munich v Real Madrid 19:45
Wed 18 Apr 2012 - Chelsea v Barcelona 19:45
Tue 24 Apr 2012 - Barcelona v Chelsea 19:45
Wed 25 Apr 2012 - Real Madrid v Bayern Munich 19:45
Please predict:
A) Final score (after 90 minutes) - 1pt for outcome, 3pts for spot-on
B) One goalscorer (doesn't matter from which side, and can include 'Own Goal' or 'No Scorer' if you wish) - 1pt if you pick right, 2pts if it's the first goal scored (therefore No Scorer would be an automatic 2pts if the game finishes 0-0)
C) How many yellow cards - spot on for 1pt
Although there is no advantage in being first to post in terms of resolving tied matches, the second to post can match no more than one of their opponents predictions.
Ties will be resolved by the competitor who performs best for (A) predictions, or if identical the (B) predictions. If this still results in a tie, there will be a sudden death prediction play-off.
Good luck everyone |  |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 09:58 - Apr 8 with 820 views | wessex_exile |
P.S. Just to emphasise, for the second legs on 24th and 25th, predictions will only apply up to the end of normal time - extra-time or penalties will not count. Also, the goal scorer is a one-off award - so even if your named player gets a hat-trick, you only get one point (or two if his first happens to be the first goal scored).
...and as always, predictions can be made right up until kick-off | |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 13:21 - Apr 8 with 806 views | noah4x4 |
1 - 2 Bayern Munich v Real Madrid - Ronaldo - 2 yellow cards.
0 - 1 Chelsea v Barcelona - Messi 3 yellow cards
2 - 0 Barcelona V Chelseas - Messi - 4 yellow cards
2 - 1 Real Madrid v Bayern Munich - Ronaldo - 3 yellow cards.
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 09:57 - Apr 9 with 794 views | BFG |
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid 0-0, 1 yellow
Chelsea v Barcelona 0-1, Xavi, 2 yellow
Barcelona V Chelsea 1-0, Messi, 2 yellow
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich 2-1, Ronaldo, 1 yellow |  | | |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 16:08 - Apr 10 with 775 views | noah4x4 |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 09:57 - Apr 9 by BFG |
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid 0-0, 1 yellow
Chelsea v Barcelona 0-1, Xavi, 2 yellow
Barcelona V Chelsea 1-0, Messi, 2 yellow
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich 2-1, Ronaldo, 1 yellow |
After seeing BFG predict 0-0 Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (and me having f*** all to do at work today), I have been thinking about the novel points scoring system to be applied for the Semi Finals and the relative odds and the skill required to predict different results. Can one perhaps beat the system?
I reckon any 0-0 is quite a clever gamble given that no (named) scorer then need be predicted. What do you think Mr Haps (as our resident bookie)?This is my theory......;
Hit a 0-0 on the nail (hence NO first goal scorer need be predicted) and it's five points in the bag....3 + 1 + 1.
However, to guarantee matching the same five points for ANY other result, one needs to predict (a) the correct score PLUS (b) predict any scorer PLUS (c) that he must be FIRST scorer.
I reckon that reflects somewhat more challenging probabilities than for a 0-0. For example, in any other win/lose/score draw result situation there are 22 possibilities as regards correctly identifying the first scorer, yet only one possibility (e.g. no scorer) for a 0-0.
So, I reckon the odds might even favour predicting ALL four games as 0-0 at 90 minutes in the hope of at least one coming up trumps to hence score five points in a single hit. Then if any of the others (e.g. originally predicted as 0-0) were correct outcomes (e.g. now as score draws), each scoring 1 point, that should be a decent haul even though the tactic has excluded oneself from any further 'scorer' bonus points. Or does the opportunity to find ANY scorer in the other situations and hence score 1 pt negate that? Perhaps time to call for Mr Haps and his slide rule! What are the relative odds?
Of course, this theory ignores the fact that both sides will, of course, be cheating and swan diving in the other's penalty area; and the refs and linos will make ghastly mistakes to ensure goals for TV pundits to drool over. But then BFG has also gone for a very low yellow card count - perhaps suggesting that honest clean play may prevail in low scoring game? Could be tactical genius, or are there too many natural war-mongerers on ther pitch to ensure Bobby Charlton style honesty? Or is this me playing Jose Murinho mind games to unsettle my own head to head opponent (Coomster)?
But all of this does beg a question....does a straight red count as two yellows (given I assume two yellows for the same player still count two yellows = red?). Or are straight reds ignored? What's the rule book say? [Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 18:22 - Apr 10 with 764 views | BFG |
Yes that was what I was thinking :) | | | |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 23:52 - Apr 10 with 756 views | wessex_exile |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 16:08 - Apr 10 by noah4x4 |
After seeing BFG predict 0-0 Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (and me having f*** all to do at work today), I have been thinking about the novel points scoring system to be applied for the Semi Finals and the relative odds and the skill required to predict different results. Can one perhaps beat the system?
I reckon any 0-0 is quite a clever gamble given that no (named) scorer then need be predicted. What do you think Mr Haps (as our resident bookie)?This is my theory......;
Hit a 0-0 on the nail (hence NO first goal scorer need be predicted) and it's five points in the bag....3 + 1 + 1.
However, to guarantee matching the same five points for ANY other result, one needs to predict (a) the correct score PLUS (b) predict any scorer PLUS (c) that he must be FIRST scorer.
I reckon that reflects somewhat more challenging probabilities than for a 0-0. For example, in any other win/lose/score draw result situation there are 22 possibilities as regards correctly identifying the first scorer, yet only one possibility (e.g. no scorer) for a 0-0.
So, I reckon the odds might even favour predicting ALL four games as 0-0 at 90 minutes in the hope of at least one coming up trumps to hence score five points in a single hit. Then if any of the others (e.g. originally predicted as 0-0) were correct outcomes (e.g. now as score draws), each scoring 1 point, that should be a decent haul even though the tactic has excluded oneself from any further 'scorer' bonus points. Or does the opportunity to find ANY scorer in the other situations and hence score 1 pt negate that? Perhaps time to call for Mr Haps and his slide rule! What are the relative odds?
Of course, this theory ignores the fact that both sides will, of course, be cheating and swan diving in the other's penalty area; and the refs and linos will make ghastly mistakes to ensure goals for TV pundits to drool over. But then BFG has also gone for a very low yellow card count - perhaps suggesting that honest clean play may prevail in low scoring game? Could be tactical genius, or are there too many natural war-mongerers on ther pitch to ensure Bobby Charlton style honesty? Or is this me playing Jose Murinho mind games to unsettle my own head to head opponent (Coomster)?
But all of this does beg a question....does a straight red count as two yellows (given I assume two yellows for the same player still count two yellows = red?). Or are straight reds ignored? What's the rule book say? [Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
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Interesting analysis Noah.
Although BFG hasn't taken up the option, there is absolutely no reason why predictions can't be mutually exclusive (i.e. pick both No scorer and a scoring result or vica versa) to allow for a bit of spread betting.
Also, though there has been one 0-0 since the end of the group stages, it's a mercifully rare occurence, and it would be a brave punter who relied on it too much given the wealth of goal-scoring talent on display in the semi-final matches - particularly as the refs will be under orders from UEFA and major sponsors to ensure goals are scored.
In answer to the cards, it's only yellows that count, so a red card from two yellows counts as 2, but a straight red doesn't - it's not intended as a prediction of on-field discipline per se, just a means of introducing a variable to help reduce the likelihood of tied matches. | |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 06:09 - Apr 11 with 749 views | wessex_exile |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 23:52 - Apr 10 by wessex_exile |
Interesting analysis Noah.
Although BFG hasn't taken up the option, there is absolutely no reason why predictions can't be mutually exclusive (i.e. pick both No scorer and a scoring result or vica versa) to allow for a bit of spread betting.
Also, though there has been one 0-0 since the end of the group stages, it's a mercifully rare occurence, and it would be a brave punter who relied on it too much given the wealth of goal-scoring talent on display in the semi-final matches - particularly as the refs will be under orders from UEFA and major sponsors to ensure goals are scored.
In answer to the cards, it's only yellows that count, so a red card from two yellows counts as 2, but a straight red doesn't - it's not intended as a prediction of on-field discipline per se, just a means of introducing a variable to help reduce the likelihood of tied matches. |
...also, the points available are designed as a 3.2.1 hierachy. You're right that should a game finish 0-0 the punter who went for that result (with a No-scorer) would guarantee 5pts. On the flipside, as soon as the ball hits the back of the net (assuming it does) his maximum return from that game reduces to a paltry 2pts (and there's only been a single score-draw alongside the single goalless draw from the Champions League since the start of the year) - whereas everyone else has either nailed 2pts for first scorer straight off or still has a chance of at least 1pt for scorer, and is potentially still in the chase for 3pts for the result as well...
Of course, you overlooked the Own Goal option - No Scorer might be a canny bet even if it's an unlikely outcome (based on past performances), compared to choosing one of (say) the four or six most likely players on the pitch to score a goal - but a vote for Own Goal is surely effectively choosing all 22 players in one single prediction?  | |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 09:34 - Apr 11 with 745 views | noah4x4 |
......but a vote for Own Goal is surely effectively choosing all 22 players in one single prediction?
Actually no, because any used substitutes are also in play (assuming that the score is 0-0 at the time of the substitution). That's equally true as regards any/first scorer). Hence the odds of being correct as regards predicting the right no-scorer (e.g. nobody) in the event of a 0-0 are surely even better - and correspondingly worse for other scorelines.
......there is no advantage in being first to post.....
Here, I wonder, and it begs another question as regards the rules Wessex (n.b. thanks for clarity of the straight red card situation). If second to post means that one can't match more than one of the first player predictions, does that rule also apply to the any/first scorer choice (and to yellow cards) or just scores?
I deliberately nipped in quick with Messi and Renaldo (surely the favourites?). Regardless of that, player two subsequently matching any/first scorer (or yellow cards) in a "head to head" simply negates that parameter for both players, placing focus back on scores, where 0-0 may potentially have an advantage.
Of course, one does expect mind games to feature in the build up to any big semi final and given Coomster's lofty Premier League position compared to mine, I need all the advance psychological advantage that I can muster. Dare Coomster predict any 0-0's?
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 22:10 - Apr 11 with 738 views | coomster |
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid 1 - 2 Ronaldo 2 Yellows
Chelsea v Barcelona 1 - 1 Lampard 2 Yellows
Barcelona v Chelsea 3 - 2 Messi 2 Yellows
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich 3 - 0 Kaka 2 Yellows |  | | |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 08:58 - Apr 12 with 731 views | mrhappy |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 16:08 - Apr 10 by noah4x4 |
After seeing BFG predict 0-0 Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (and me having f*** all to do at work today), I have been thinking about the novel points scoring system to be applied for the Semi Finals and the relative odds and the skill required to predict different results. Can one perhaps beat the system?
I reckon any 0-0 is quite a clever gamble given that no (named) scorer then need be predicted. What do you think Mr Haps (as our resident bookie)?This is my theory......;
Hit a 0-0 on the nail (hence NO first goal scorer need be predicted) and it's five points in the bag....3 + 1 + 1.
However, to guarantee matching the same five points for ANY other result, one needs to predict (a) the correct score PLUS (b) predict any scorer PLUS (c) that he must be FIRST scorer.
I reckon that reflects somewhat more challenging probabilities than for a 0-0. For example, in any other win/lose/score draw result situation there are 22 possibilities as regards correctly identifying the first scorer, yet only one possibility (e.g. no scorer) for a 0-0.
So, I reckon the odds might even favour predicting ALL four games as 0-0 at 90 minutes in the hope of at least one coming up trumps to hence score five points in a single hit. Then if any of the others (e.g. originally predicted as 0-0) were correct outcomes (e.g. now as score draws), each scoring 1 point, that should be a decent haul even though the tactic has excluded oneself from any further 'scorer' bonus points. Or does the opportunity to find ANY scorer in the other situations and hence score 1 pt negate that? Perhaps time to call for Mr Haps and his slide rule! What are the relative odds?
Of course, this theory ignores the fact that both sides will, of course, be cheating and swan diving in the other's penalty area; and the refs and linos will make ghastly mistakes to ensure goals for TV pundits to drool over. But then BFG has also gone for a very low yellow card count - perhaps suggesting that honest clean play may prevail in low scoring game? Could be tactical genius, or are there too many natural war-mongerers on ther pitch to ensure Bobby Charlton style honesty? Or is this me playing Jose Murinho mind games to unsettle my own head to head opponent (Coomster)?
But all of this does beg a question....does a straight red count as two yellows (given I assume two yellows for the same player still count two yellows = red?). Or are straight reds ignored? What's the rule book say? [Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
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Mate you deserve a reply after all that lot - my answer ? I havent one !   |  |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 21:08 - Apr 16 with 718 views | Daniel |
First leg predictions...
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid 1-1, 3 yellows
Chelsea v Barcelona 1-2, Lampard, 4 yellows
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 16:45 - Apr 19 with 687 views | wessex_exile |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 16:08 - Apr 10 by noah4x4 |
After seeing BFG predict 0-0 Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (and me having f*** all to do at work today), I have been thinking about the novel points scoring system to be applied for the Semi Finals and the relative odds and the skill required to predict different results. Can one perhaps beat the system?
I reckon any 0-0 is quite a clever gamble given that no (named) scorer then need be predicted. What do you think Mr Haps (as our resident bookie)?This is my theory......;
Hit a 0-0 on the nail (hence NO first goal scorer need be predicted) and it's five points in the bag....3 + 1 + 1.
However, to guarantee matching the same five points for ANY other result, one needs to predict (a) the correct score PLUS (b) predict any scorer PLUS (c) that he must be FIRST scorer.
I reckon that reflects somewhat more challenging probabilities than for a 0-0. For example, in any other win/lose/score draw result situation there are 22 possibilities as regards correctly identifying the first scorer, yet only one possibility (e.g. no scorer) for a 0-0.
So, I reckon the odds might even favour predicting ALL four games as 0-0 at 90 minutes in the hope of at least one coming up trumps to hence score five points in a single hit. Then if any of the others (e.g. originally predicted as 0-0) were correct outcomes (e.g. now as score draws), each scoring 1 point, that should be a decent haul even though the tactic has excluded oneself from any further 'scorer' bonus points. Or does the opportunity to find ANY scorer in the other situations and hence score 1 pt negate that? Perhaps time to call for Mr Haps and his slide rule! What are the relative odds?
Of course, this theory ignores the fact that both sides will, of course, be cheating and swan diving in the other's penalty area; and the refs and linos will make ghastly mistakes to ensure goals for TV pundits to drool over. But then BFG has also gone for a very low yellow card count - perhaps suggesting that honest clean play may prevail in low scoring game? Could be tactical genius, or are there too many natural war-mongerers on ther pitch to ensure Bobby Charlton style honesty? Or is this me playing Jose Murinho mind games to unsettle my own head to head opponent (Coomster)?
But all of this does beg a question....does a straight red count as two yellows (given I assume two yellows for the same player still count two yellows = red?). Or are straight reds ignored? What's the rule book say? [Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
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BTW Noah - having just compared with our results to date, on the U'sual Prediction League I've got the goal-scorer correct 7 times so far. If I'd simply chosen No Scorer every time, I'd have got 9 right, so you might have a point? | |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 19:26 - Apr 24 with 669 views | Daniel |
Tue 24 Apr 2012 - Barcelona v Chelsea 2-0, Messi, 6 yellows
Wed 25 Apr 2012 - Real Madrid v Bayern Munich 3-1, Ronaldo, 7 yellows | | | |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 20:40 - Apr 25 with 643 views | noah4x4 |
No previous points to anybody at the mo'........Happy 'Champions'..my arse!
HT .....45 minutes....and nail biting stuff!
Currently Madrid 2-1 Bayern.
I'm presently spot on (2-1), and Coomster (3-0) now can't take 3 points.
So the worse case scenario for me on outcome/result will be a point each (but maybe 3 to me).
Renaldo has scored, and was first - so that's two points in the bag to me.
Kaka merely on the bench - but he still could salvage a point for Coomster.
Two yellows to date, so currently that's a point to Coomster.
So if Kaka scores, and no more yellow cards - it's all square 2-2 (bites lip)
But just one more yellow card (or if Kaka stays on the bench), I don't think I can lose from that position.
Wessex...this new formula is so exciting!
We should adopt for the Happy League!
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 20:46 - Apr 25 with 640 views | noah4x4 |
BFG v Daniel is going right down to the wire
Like a poker game......now depends on the turn of the last card...
2-1 or 3-1 (or neither to share the points)....or is it down to yellow cards?
Wessex, I think you may be tossing a coin to seperate them
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 21:07 - Apr 25 with 636 views | noah4x4 |
Yeeeessssss!
Yellow card for Arbeloa!!!
3 yellows = 1
Renaldo = 1
First = 1
2-1 = 3
I'm currently sitting on a Full House!
Don't think I can be defeated now (so sportingly thrusts out hand to Coomster). "Jolly good contest Old Boy" - just a shame I am falling out of the Premier Division and we won't compete head to head next year. | | | |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 21:27 - Apr 25 with 628 views | Barsidepete |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 21:07 - Apr 25 by noah4x4 |
Yeeeessssss!
Yellow card for Arbeloa!!!
3 yellows = 1
Renaldo = 1
First = 1
2-1 = 3
I'm currently sitting on a Full House!
Don't think I can be defeated now (so sportingly thrusts out hand to Coomster). "Jolly good contest Old Boy" - just a shame I am falling out of the Premier Division and we won't compete head to head next year. |
So if it stays 2-1 and 3-3 aggregate you'd have to hold your breath till pks, unless I'm missing something  |  |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 23:01 - Apr 25 with 617 views | wessex_exile |
Wow - looks like virtually everyone saved their scoring for the last game, after another round of blanks for Chelsea's spirited 2-2 draw at Barca (and Terry's red card was a straight red, so not 2 yelows), so here we go for the official sem-final result:
Noah 5 Coomster 1
Very nearly a clean sweep for Noah, though the yellow card count snowballed to 7, way beyond his optimistic 3 - still, 5pts simply blew Coomster away, even with his point for finding the correct outcome.
BFG 5 Daniel 5
How close could this have been, BFG with the correct score (3pts) and Ronaldo as first scorer (2pts), Daniel with the correct outcome (1pt), Ronaldo as first scorer (2pts) and amazingly the correct 7 yellow cards (1pt) - all adding to his previous point for 4 yellow cards in the Chelsea v Barcelona 1st leg. Sadly for Daniel, despite some epic predicting, the rules state that ties will be resolved in the first instance by the player who performs best for score predictions, and that means BFG claims his place in the final by getting tonight's score spot-on compared to Daniel's outcome.
Congratulations to Noah and BFG, commiserations to Coomster and particularly Daniel. | |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 23:10 - Apr 25 with 614 views | Daniel |
 Boo hoo, I wish to appeal on the grounds that it's harder to pick 7 bookings spot on than a 2-1 result, haha.
Daniel v Coomster third place play-off? | | | |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 00:01 - Apr 26 with 611 views | wessex_exile |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 23:10 - Apr 25 by Daniel |
Boo hoo, I wish to appeal on the grounds that it's harder to pick 7 bookings spot on than a 2-1 result, haha.
Daniel v Coomster third place play-off? |
It is definitely harsh Daniel, not just getting the yellow cards right twice, but four scoring predictions across the board.
I hadn't thought about a 3rd place play-off, but if Coomster is up for it too - why not  | |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 03:33 - Apr 26 with 607 views | mrhappy |
Great stuff chaps !!!!! | |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 08:00 - Apr 26 with 603 views | BFG |
Bad luck Daniel, well played.
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 11:45 - Apr 26 with 596 views | Barsidepete |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 00:01 - Apr 26 by wessex_exile |
It is definitely harsh Daniel, not just getting the yellow cards right twice, but four scoring predictions across the board.
I hadn't thought about a 3rd place play-off, but if Coomster is up for it too - why not |
Is this an olympic thing?  | |
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| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 14:47 - Apr 26 with 583 views | coomster |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 00:01 - Apr 26 by wessex_exile |
It is definitely harsh Daniel, not just getting the yellow cards right twice, but four scoring predictions across the board.
I hadn't thought about a 3rd place play-off, but if Coomster is up for it too - why not |
Well done to you all for getting 5 points, very impressive to me.
I had not thought about a 3rd place play off, don't really think I deserve to be there, but I am up for it Daniel.
Good luck to all. | | | |
| Happy Champions League Semi-Final predictions on 22:06 - Apr 26 with 570 views | noah4x4 |
Would'nt it be ironic if Daniel and Coomster each score a maximum, and me and BFG score nil
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