| Wolves 4 - 2 U's. Noah's View 12:19 - Mar 26 with 733 views | noah4x4 |
Wolves tightened their grip at the top of Division One moving to 83 points; but many gracious Wolves fans were kind enough to confirm that whilst delighted to have come out on top in a six goal thriller; they would have had no complaints had it ended 3-3. Similarly, the traveling blue & white faithful accepted that our defeat was probably a deserved result based upon a clinical Wolves first half performance. What a fantastic game of football. I was still buzzing with enthusiasm as I crept into bed at ten to three after the usual midland motorway cone chaos.
Let’s get things into their true perspective; at this same time last season (38 games); leaders Doncaster Rovers had merely 69 points; and that’s 14 points fewer than Wolves. Intriguingly; has anybody else noticed that a 14 point gap has also opened between fifth and sixth place; such has been the dominance of Wolves; Brentford; Orient; Rotherham and Preston. Frankly, did we ever expect anything other than defeat?
On my last visit to Molineux I recall rolling cow sheds; but today; the stadium is magnificent. Indeed the club shop rivals Colchester’s M & S. Over 17,000 tattooed Wolves fans in gold spandex; shaven heads and bling added to the intimidation; and in a blink of an eye; the U’s were a goal down after a sweeping move where our first touch was to pick the ball out of the net. About 170 noisy U’s fans had been compressed into 5% of the empty Steve Bull Lower Stand surrounded by what felt like as many stewards. We had been corralled (or is it ‘kettled’?) and then our team swept aside by an overwhelming force in a mere minute; but then I mused; perhaps their sponsor’s logo; “What House.Com” says everything about North/South divide envy; and whatever fears they might have after watching us on ‘TOWIE’ and ‘Birds of a Feather’; they were taking no chances; such is the reputation of our (on this night) significantly geriatric choir.
We simply carried on singing; as we did throughout; despite capitulating to three goals down by the interval. This first half wasn’t actually a bad U’s performance; but we did make some poor individual errors under huge pressure and were punished. Wolves pace and skill dominated and when you hold open your wallet to a club that evidently still remain Premier League aspirants it is inevitable you will get your pocket picked; although here it was more of a ram-raid; such was the home teams early dominance.
Then on 55’; the (once again) ineffective Craig Eastmond was withdrawn to give Freddie Sears a run at the resolute Wolves defence; whilst the hard working Iberhe was replaced by Morrison. Here my reaction was “it’s already game over at 3-0; so very sensible to protect Jabo for Saturdays’ clash with the Magpies”. Despite these fresh legs and an excellently worked Alex Gilbey goal on 58’; my opinion didn’t change for all of another seven minutes; there could only be one outcome (e.g. a likely thrashing). So on 65’, we welcomed the hard working Gavin Massey also being withdrawn to keep fuel in his tank for Meadow Lane. How wrong I was; it was far from 'game over'; as on came super-sub Sammy Szmodics. Credit to Joe Dunne for whatever motivation inspired these three substitutions!
Suddenly we had those fearless youth team buddies; Gilbey and Szmodics in tandem; with the forward pace of Sears. Dominic Vose clearly enjoyed this fun and thrived as these three twinkle-toed around him; finding space into which to receive his precision passes; whilst even old rusty knees Clinton made a decent contribution and formed a pivot in some neatly worked moves; one of which led to a deserved U’s second on 72’. Then when Freddie Sears was denied by the post; nobody could have argued that we were not enough good value for a 3-3.
If this is a sign of what we can expect in 2014-15 when these lads mature further; then bring it on. The average age of the side that finished this game so strongly; and won the second half 2-1; against the runaway league leaders; was under 25. This is incredible; considering that Morrison; Magnus; Dickson and David Wright have a combined age of 125. The other seven hence barely averaged 21!
As luck will often have it in games like this where one is chasing an equaliser; with the U’s pressing hard (eight U's shirts in the Wolves box for our free kick); we were caught on the (lucky) break and the sigh of relief on 90’ from the North Bank when it became 4-2 was audible. There were still three minutes of added time left and Wolves fans had had enough of enduring a squeaky bum feeling in the prior 20 minutes of U's constant pressure. Whilst 3-2 was probably fair taking account of both halves; 4-2 was cruel. As I said before; Wolve's fans would not have complained that it was undeserved had we achieved 3-3 (and merely moaned only at their own team’s demise). It was awesome entertainment; and in the grand plan of things; this result mattered little to us; other than it must boost confidence; which is a rare thing in defeat.
With Carlisle and Shrewsbury sharing a point; the gap between the U’s and the relegation zone has slipped to four points in absolute terms. However; our superior goal difference (worth a point) and a points system where only 3 or 1 or 0 is possible (never 2) means that the tangible differential still remains at the same two wins despite our defeat last night. However; there is now one fewer game available for others to overcome this significant shortfall; plus whatever extra breathing space we can muster. So let’s analyse what this means statistically in terms of relegation prospects;
The overwhelming points acquisition dominance of the top five (see above) and the fact that many of the bottom nine still have fixtures to play against them might produce a rare season where 47 or 48 points may be enough to stay up. However; 51 points has consistently been enough in Division One. So how many points per remaining game will it require for each team in the relegation mix to now achieve the magic 51 and certain safety? As usual; having points on the board are worth far more than games in hand. For example; bottom placed Stevenage are not going to relish still having to play Wolves; Sheffield United and Brentford and a defeat tonight at Coventry would thrust their requirement up to 1.75 points per game.
To get to 51 points and certain safety;…
16 Colchester United 8 from 8 games = 1.00 points per game.
17 Oldham 8 from 7 = 1.14
18 Coventry 9 from 9 = 1.00
19 Crewe 11 from 7 = 1.57
20 Tranmere 12 from 8 = 1.50
21 Carlisle 12 from 8 = 1.50
22 Shrewsbury 13 from 7 = 1.85
23 Notts County 14 from 7 = 2.00
24 Stevenage 14 from 9 = 1.55
The U’s have averaged 1.13 per game. Hence; only the U’s and Coventry have less to do than their season’s average points per game to date. Six of those below us must accumulate points at a rate at least 50% greater than they have before. Where in excess of 1.5 points per game is required; that is equivalent to maintaining ‘play-off’ form from now until the season’s end (e.g. Peterborough 58 from 38 = 1.53 per game). There is no chance of all six doing that even if perhaps two might.
One more DRAW for Notts County and their points factor per game becomes the same as replicating Wolves table topping form (2.14 points per match). One defeat for better placed Tranmere and their factor will leap to 1.71. Here; you can see an analogy with Duckworth-Lewis and the impact of a fall of a wicket; but unlike cricket; you can’t hit a four or six off any ball (merely a 3, 1 or 0).
Now consider these TEN remaining fixtures where ONE of each pairing MUST DROP three points (or both might drop two points). It is dropping points not their gain which will ultimately determine the destiny of the four wooden spoon places.
Oldham/Coventry
Carlisle /Oldham
Oldham/Notts County
Coventry/Stevenage
Crewe/Coventry
Shrewsbury/Crewe
Tranmere/Carlisle
Tranmere/Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury/Stevenage
Shrewsbury/Crewe
Any FAILURE TO WIN must mean that particular team will drop either three or two points; and (at best) gain only one. A gain of merely one point per game is below their target required to reach certain safety. These ten fixtures have hence become MUST WIN games for those in the bottom six; and the mathematics obviously mean that both can NEVER win!
So even if two of the bottom six did go on a run of 'play-off form'; the other four should be doomed (having dropped points to the other). It is impossible for all six to equally hit good form.
The U’s will stay up provided that we achieve our one point per game requirement (8 from 8). But his is not about outrunning a hungry lion; we merely have to outrun the four slowest; and they are already doing their level best to help us by tripping each other up en route (as last night’s results will testify).
But from a Colchester perspective; we then have these five games against bottom sides and unlike all of the others (bar Coventry); our destiny is entirely in our own hands.
Colchester/Tranmere
Colchester/Oldham
Crewe/Colchester
Notts County/Colchester
Stevenage/Colchester
Where the U’s achieve merely a DRAW that means maintenance of our starting requirement of one point per game; but crucially; that is then two dropped points for our opponent. As demonstrated earlier; draws are of little assistance to these teams that are ALL in the bottom six if they have any desire of catching us; albeit that draws may help them avoid the drop by overcoming each other. It’s a bit hard to prove this without pages of detail; but I reckon merely one win and two draws from these five games should ensure our safety; because of the effect of the rest tripping each other up; and that is before we consider our other fixtures against Walsall; Peterborough and Brentford. It is not unreasonable (albeit challenging) to assume that we might gain a point or so from these. We have beaten Peterborough; and were cheated out of a win against Walsall (referee added nine minutes when it was five). Walsall are rock bottom of the form guide; so their lofty league position is no evidence of current playing health; and similarly Peterborough have not enjoyed a great run.
Here’s to a home grown U’s team in 2014-15 having an average age of under 23. Then who knows what we might achieve in 2015-16?
[Post edited 26 Mar 2014 12:27]
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| Wolves 4 - 2 U's. Noah's View on 14:14 - Mar 26 with 694 views | thrillseeker |
 noah4X4
Another well written piece and love the statistics after the match report
I have no doubt we will be in Division 3 next season |  | | |
| Wolves 4 - 2 U's. Noah's View on 18:23 - Mar 26 with 650 views | durham_exile |
| Wolves 4 - 2 U's. Noah's View on 14:14 - Mar 26 by thrillseeker |
noah4X4
Another well written piece and love the statistics after the match report
I have no doubt we will be in Division 3 next season |
The old Division 3! now those were the days!
Great stuff Noah, thank you.
Yes we won't be relegated, but I am getting sick and tired of nearly getting a draw or playing well and failing to convert chances.
I see that JD is after a striker on loan, hopefully before the weekend!
Notts County are springing a great escape and we need to go and defeat them at the weekend. The sooner we get to 52 points the better.
Peterbore are in danger of missing out on the play offs
Tranmere after they flattered to deceive last season have returned to type.
Stevenage have games in hand but it will be a scrap for them
Oldham will just survive
Then Crewe, Brentford and Walsall - I'm going to all three.
Enough games to get enough points, but enough of this dicing with relegation, which is tiresome, worrying and one of the reasons why crowds are dwindling at the WHCS.
Meadow Lane here we come.
Up the U's
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| Wolves 4 - 2 U's. Noah's View on 19:19 - Mar 26 with 631 views | RSCOSWORTH |
Great stuff as always Noah. Some really interesting factors there that I hadn't considered. |  |
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| Wolves 4 - 2 U's. Noah's View on 00:42 - Mar 27 with 588 views | noah4x4 |
After the perfect 0-0 draw (for us) between Carlisle and Shrewsbury; and the defeat of Crewe by almost certainly doomed Notts County; another result ideally went our way tonight. Coventry 1 - 0 Stevenage.
It doesn't matter a jot that Coventry have crept above us as they have nailed yet another below us. Our table of death (e.g. what it requires to get to the magic 51 points and certain safety) now reads;
17 Colchester United 8 from 8 games = 1 point per game
18 Oldham 8 from 7 = 1.14
19 Crewe 11 from 7 = 1.57
20 Tranmere 12 from 8 = 1.50
21 Carlisle 12 from 8 = 1.50
22 Shrewsbury 13 from 7 = 1.85
23 Notts County 14 from 7 = 2.00
24 STEVENAGE 14 from 8 = 1.75 (was previously 1.55).
This shows how one single defeat has massively increased the challenge for Stevenage. The bottom three teams ALL now require almost automatic promotion form (expressed as points required per game) if they are to be certain of avoiding relegation.
Then on Saturday; Tranmere play Carlisle. A win for either means that to get to the magic 51; the loser then needs 12 points from 7 games = 1.71 points per game. Hence that's four teams requiring (almost) automatic promotion form.
A draw would leave both needing 11 from 7 = 1.57 per game. So even though both would gain a point should we lose to Notts County; they are actually further away from safety in the context of the points THEY require per game. This phenomenon with each tripping each other up for our benefit is often overlooked by fans that just see the absolute points differential. Frankly; I suspect that we might only need 7 points. | | | |
| Wolves 4 - 2 U's. Noah's View on 18:27 - Mar 27 with 548 views | bwildered |
Is that 7 points Noah, 7 draws , 2 wins 1 draw or 4 draws 1 win or 3 wins with 2 points and not a .00 of a point to spare .
Can we deal with whole numbers in future Noah , has .00 of a point cannot keep us up.
See my point ! |  |
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| Wolves 4 - 2 U's. Noah's View on 21:16 - Mar 27 with 532 views | noah4x4 |
| Wolves 4 - 2 U's. Noah's View on 18:27 - Mar 27 by bwildered |
Is that 7 points Noah, 7 draws , 2 wins 1 draw or 4 draws 1 win or 3 wins with 2 points and not a .00 of a point to spare .
Can we deal with whole numbers in future Noah , has .00 of a point cannot keep us up.
See my point ! |
I reckon we need just seven points from eight games to be certain of avoiding relegation (given that our goal difference is worth + one); or possibly even as few as five or six points; (e.g. to get to 48 or 49 total) depending upon how some other bottom of the table fixtures are settled. The target for safety is probably lower this season due to the disproportionate number of points won by the top five; but it is normally a safety target of no more than 51 (hence my assumption of the U's needing a maximum of seven + GD).
The necessary points might indeed be achieved by a single win plus four draws (or two wins and one draw) to get to the maximum safety target. However; as the target is quite likely to be lower (48-50) it may prove easier than that. A win and just two draws might suffice; again dependent on other results. The good thing is our destiny is entirely in our own hands.
To distinguish what each team must individually achieve to avoid the drop and also assess the risk of them overtaking us; I previously expressed this as the average points necessary per remaining game as that embraces another important factor; the number of games available in which to achieve that. Quite obviously it is more challenging to reach the same safety target for teams without games in hand. Here, one must use two decimal places else the error is too great. If that was confusing; sorry. Let me instead now use only a 'whole points' summary;
If we assume (the higher) 51 points is the target required for certain safety; then the U's must gain a further seven points (given our goal difference) and for others it ranges from a need for another eight points (Oldham); then eleven (Crewe); twelve (Tranmere/Carlisle); thirteen (Shrewsbury) through to fourteen points (Notts County and Stevenage).
Gaining 13 or 14 points from merely eight (or at best nine) games is a massive task; and frankly the bottom three can't afford more than a couple of defeats. I believe it is also now mathematically impossible for more than five of the eight teams below us to overtake us; as many below us must play each other; hence one or both must drop points. Soon some cannot afford to lose a single game. Three already below us must be relegated; but we don't yet know which.
In effect; we are in a eight horse race in which five are currently not even close to the home straight and three will be certain fallers. Whilst the physical gap above the relegation zone is merely four points; allowing for our superior goal difference it is now (at least) four points over SIX teams (not merely the four in the drop zone); and they can't all catch us. As I said before; when out running a hungry lion; we do only have to out run those running more slowly behind us; and the joy is they are all intent on tripping each other up in fixtures not involving the U's.
Whilst a four points gap looks slim; the fact that Tranmere play Carlisle on Saturday might almost clinch things if the U's then win at Notts County and if all the others in this melee lose. It's a big ask to win at Meadow Lane; but even a draw will be a massive boost; whilst a defeat won't be a disaster if most others lose too. However; a defeat for others on Saturday may mean they are just one defeat away from relegation with at most six games still to play (or having games in hand that they MUST win).
The other four games that we have against bottom of the table sides are also likely to be 'must win' games for them; but we can afford the luxury of a few draws and some defeats. One win and a couple of draws may possibly suffice; but two wins and a draw is certain safety, unless a number of teams start scoring 4-0 every week to overcome our huge goal difference. [Post edited 27 Mar 2014 21:30]
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