| Are the Play-Offs a realistic possibility? 12:02 - Feb 3 with 644 views | RSCOSWORTH |
Quite simply, no.
Looking at the last 14 seasons, but ignoring the Covid shortened season, an average of nearly 72 points has been required for 7th place in League Two. Last season Mansfield finished 7th with 77 points and the season before Tranmere got 73 points. Only three times have teams got in the Play-Offs with less than 70 points, 69 was enough twice and 68 once. We’ve actually finished on 69 and 70 points during our current seven season stay in League Two, both times finishing 8th.
Using the average of 72 points being required, and even that may not be enough, we are currently on 30 points after 29 games meaning we’d require 42 points from our final 17 matches. So, is this achievable? Mathematically yes, but in reality it is extremely unlikely. Let’s look at our final 17 matches from previous seasons.
Last 17 Matches
2021-22 - 25 points
2020-21 - 18 points
2019-20 - 27 points*
2018-19 - 24 points
2017-18 - 20 points
2016-17 - 25 points
2006-07 - 25 points - first season in the Championship
2005-06 - 24 points - the promotion season
*These points were achieved from our final 17 league games that season but it’s a bit different from the points obtained at the end of the season when teams are vying for promotion and battling relegation.
As you can see from the above the most points we’ve ever managed from our last 17 matches of the season in recent years has been 27 but this was during the Covid shortened 2019-20 season. Looking at points from the true final 17 matches of a season it’s actually 25 points which we’ve achieved on a few occasions notably last season which shows how well Wayne Brown did towards the end of last season and also 2016/17 where we just missed out on the Play-Offs. We also managed 25 points from our last 17 games in that magical first season in the Championship and 24 points from our final 17 games in the even more magical promotion season.
So, have we ever managed 42 points from 17 games? Possibly yes but not recently. Last season our best points haul from 17 games was the 25 points we achieved under Wayne Brown from the last 17 games of the season. The previous season it was 28 which actually came from the opening 17 matches as Steve Ball’s tenure got off to a positive start before trailing off dramatically. Other seasons in League Two our best points total has ranged from 31 to 33 apart from last season where it was 25 and this season which is currently at 21. In the promotion season we did manage 41 points from 17 games (13 wins, two draws, two defeats) and we all remember how good we were during that period. To repeat and even better that kind of form, with the current squad, seems pretty unlikely to me.
In League Two Bristol Rovers had the best return from their final 17 matches last season with an impressive 39 points, Exeter and Swindon were next best with 34 and followed by Port Vale 33 and these were the only clubs who managed over 30 points. Scunthorpe and Oldham struggled to a dismal 7 and 12 respectively as they were relegated out of the league with champions Forest Green stumbling to just 19 points from their final 17 games. The average was just under 24 points and we finished 11th in the form table, missing out on 10th by goal difference to Leyton Orient after we both finished on 25 points. Walsall incidentally also got 25 points.
Whilst it’s been nice to look up the table for a change and talk about the Play-Offs our start to the season has left us too far behind at this stage. Six points from our first 10 games is our worst return since we returned to this division and in fact we’ve tracked below previous seasons, even the last one, for pretty much the whole campaign. Interestingly we also had 30 points after 29 games last season so have an opportunity to be ahead of last season for the first time on Saturday if we win. I think 25 points from our final 17 matches would actually be a pretty decent return and 26 even better as it would mean season on season improvement the last two seasons. I think we’re more than capable of avoiding the drop and it would take something pretty spectacular from some of the teams below us for them to overtake us now. Hopefully, the remainder of this season can be spent embedding in the new signings, growing the confidence and generally building for next season. Surprisingly, a number of promoted teams and even division winners didn’t have great seasons the season before they were promoted. Stevenage, Leyton Orient and Carlisle all finished in the bottom half last season and currently find themselves in the promotion places. More on that another day though.
CheeRS
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| Are the Play-Offs a realistic possibility? on 12:42 - Feb 3 with 635 views | gerry_us |
I'm still concerned that we have played loads more games than everyone in the league. When this anomaly disappears and we are still comfortably safe from the drop...then I will dream of the alternative.
Let's just get the nightmare scenario out of the way first. |  | | |
| Are the Play-Offs a realistic possibility? on 15:47 - Feb 3 with 591 views | bwildered |
Let’s just keep ticking over, win home games and enjoy some footie, rather than be playing under extra pressure being in the trap door positions . Much work still to be done while getting to gel the new signings for a more serious push next season.
At present we are positioned in the top of the lower pack, now chase the next bunch rather than get reeled backwards . There is always one club that makes a late run .
Onwards and upwards |  |
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| Are the Play-Offs a realistic possibility? on 16:51 - Feb 3 with 574 views | durham_exile |
RS until it is mathematically impossible then I still believe that we can do it.
I am sure that MB and the players believe too.
Our current form suggests that it is achievable.
I say let's see what happens over these 17 games and a top seven place may well be the result.
MB certainly has the squad now to achieve it.
Up the U's |  |
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