| Statistical reasons why the U's are going to avoid relegation; 11:25 - Feb 28 with 503 views | noah4x4 |
We might be still languishing in the relegation zone, but our statistics under Joe Dunne are remarkably encouraging if one takes the trouble to delve a little deeper into the data.....
Remember, the 'John Ward squad' that Joe inherited had;
1) Played 21 league games (since 10th March 2012) with merely one win.
2) Secured only 12 points from the final 13 games of last season.
3) Secured only 4 points from the first 8 games of this season.
The slide towards the U's being relegation fodder was hence firmly established under Ward given merely 16 points from 21 games - hence pro rata over a full season might suggest 35 from 46 = certain relegation.
Indeed our actual record by 24th September of 4 from 8 might suggest 23 pro-rata for a season; that's heading for a record low (without points having been deducted for administration!). When Ward was sacked, we were in the poo - big time - but we seem to have such short memories!
Then Joe Dunne took over. His subsequent record is 31 points from 26 games. This might suggests 54 points pro-rata over a full season = enough to put us in 15th place in 2011-12. But too many fans that are currently being critical of Joe based upon our current league position seem to forgetting that we had only 4 points after 8 games and are hence still playing catch up.
If we project forward Joe's prevailing record of 1.19 points per game until the season's end (e.g. 26 +12 more games) and then add back those original 4 points (from first 8) we will reach 49 points. Probably just enough, but the reason that we currently still remain in trouble is (IMHO) clearly Ward's legacy from those first 8 games. Let's further analyse this;
4) In Joes own first 8 games we took 16 points. Super!
Then we had the cup disaster at Chelmsford, then Watt and Eastmond injured,various other injuries suspensions and misfortunes - so is it any surprise that the wheels came off - given we were straight back to the old John Ward (we can only draw) squad that had been so disappointing for 21 consecutive games? At least Joe was trying to win games and play more attractive football.
5) In the next 9 games prior to the opening of the January transfer window we secured merely 3 points - shocking!
But this simply mirrored our awful (4 from 8) start to the season (see 3) - but what else did we expect from that same John Ward squad? I think we have to forget this period, where there was little Joe could do, so can we all please stop moaning and look forward.
Joe then had the benefit of the transfer window and was at last able to make some new signings and find some fresh faces, whilst ditching the old faeces etc.
6) In 2013 - our last 10 games, we have won 4, lost 6 securing 12 points.
This might not sound too encouraging. However, now consider that these 6 losses include Doncaster (a), Sheffield Utd (a), Tranmere (h), Swindon (h). I don't think it is any coincidence that these currently occupy places 1 - 4 in the league. Frankly did we really expect to win ANY of these? Admittedly, the nature of some of these defeats were disappointing (e.g. Tranmere), but I sure Joe pulled no punches in the dressing room.
Ok, we have also lost to Crawley (a) and Scunthorpe (h) in 2013, but so far in this calendar year we have beaten Walsall (h), Portsmouth (a), Preston (h) and now a great win over another table topper Yeovil (h). Let's look to the positives...
It strikes me that we ARE now capable of beating the teams that we might expect to defeat, and indeed now need to defeat if we are to survive. We have 12 remaining fixtures. So how tough are they, and how do they compare to our relegation peers?
7) We have NO fixtures against ANY side currently in a play off place or better.
Yippeee!
8) We have merely 2 fixtures against a top ten side.
Notts County (a) and Bournemouth (h).
9) We have 3 versus mid table sides and significantly, ALL are at HOME.
Crewe (h), Leyton Orient (h), MK Dons (h)
10) We have 6 fixtures against sides in the bottom 10.
These being Stevenage (a), Hartlepool (a), Bury (a), Oldham (a), Shrewsbury (h), Carlisle (a). These remain quite tough given so many are away fixtures.
BUT WHAT ABOUT OUR RELEGATION THREATENED PEERS?
I don't think we perhaps need look too much over our shoulder as those below us don't look a particular threat, except that we do have crucial six pointers against Bury & Hartlepool that could negate our current advantage over them should we slip up. Our real challenge is overhauling those above us.
So let's consider those above us....and consider their likelihood of being sucked into relegation trouble to our benefit...
Scunthorpe, still have to play THREE of the top six and SEVEN of the top ten.
Oldham, have to play FIVE of the top Six!
Preston must play FOUR of the top six!
Shrewbury probably have the easiest run in, but have so many fixtures against the bottom six, that they are all likely to be nervous crucial six pointers.
In summary;
I think the remaining fixtures now favour the U's; having largely put the games that we are perhaps least likely to win behind us. The six fixtures against the bottom ten sides are going to be crucial, and it is a bit worrying that so many are away. But then we are perhaps much more likely to pick up points against any higher placed sides than our fellow strugglers given that these are largely Home fixtures, and only two remain against top ten sides and none against the current top six promotion contenders.
I think safety is entirely in our own hands and we are probably safe in Joe's hands given that his record to date (despite the awful pre-Xmas period) would suggest 54 points and a comfortable mid table position over a full season. It is simply a case that he is still digging us out of the mess that John Ward left, and our league position disguises our real form since he took over. [Post edited 1 Jan 1970 1:00]
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| Statistical reasons why the U's are going to avoid relegation; on 12:31 - Feb 28 with 479 views | RSCOSWORTH |
Great stuff Noah! I love reading your posts! Very well thought out and always full of reasons to be cheerful! I'm already thinking about our assault on the League One Play Offs next season!
I predicted every remaining game in this division a few days ago (don't think I got any right on Tuesday!) but I think that Shrewsbury could be "that" team that have looked safe for most of the season but stumble towards the end and finish up in the relegation zone. |  |
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| Statistical reasons why the U's are going to avoid relegation; on 12:36 - Feb 28 with 479 views | burnsieespana |
Great work noah but statistics can be used to promote any result desired.
I so sincerely hope we can achieve 6 wins (or pick up the equivalent points in draws) from our last 12 games. Then we will be sure to be safe as suspect 52 points might this year be the cut off for relagation.
I go for:
Wins against Crewe, Leyton Orient, Bury, Shrewsbury and Stevenage.
Draws against Hartlepool and Oldham.
That would give us 52 points.....just enough by my reckoning!
This is real knife edge stuff but with Izzett back from injury and Bond seemingly recovering his form we can survive as relagation would be a disaster. |  | | |
| Statistical reasons why the U's are going to avoid relegation; on 16:00 - Feb 28 with 459 views | AFCMorant |
Very good and indicating a brighter future than after the Tranmere game! Though one thing that cannot be disguised by statistical sleight of hand is our pitiful away record. And you can protest all you want that our league position disguises our real form, that is utterly irrelevant if we finish the season in the league position we currently occupy! I wonder how many thousands of fans thought their teams didn’t deserve to go down and the league position didn’t reflect their form.
And BTW I don't want Joe Dunne to be sacked or resign.
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| Statistical reasons why the U's are going to avoid relegation; on 23:32 - Feb 28 with 443 views | durham_exile |
Well reasoned argument Noah.
Keep the faith
Up the U's
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| Statistical reasons why the U's are going to avoid relegation; on 11:51 - Mar 4 with 386 views | burnsieespana |
Interesting stuff on the 365.com website which projects on our season's form 49 points but on recent form 57 points!
Even based on the form so far this season projection we surely can't have another 9 game loosing streak so, we should, based on statistics survive.
Oldham and Scunny are statisically the favourites to join Bury, Hartlepool and Portsmouth.
Come on Col U lets us get a good result tuesday night! | | | |
| Statistical reasons why the U's are going to avoid relegation; on 17:23 - Mar 4 with 371 views | bwildered |
The last time the U's were relegated from Div3 , League 1 was 1980/81.
U's record was thus,
P46. H. W12 , D7 , L4 , F 35 A 22 , A. W2, D4 , L17, F 10. A 43. PTS 39
Note this was the imperial age of 2points for a win .
However if converted to new metric, 3 points for a win, the U's attained 53 pts .
A respectable home record could not rescue the U's from a disastrous away record that led to a final position of third from bottom .
So more points on your travels please .
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| Statistical reasons why the U's are going to avoid relegation; on 22:42 - Mar 4 with 359 views | durham_exile |
| Statistical reasons why the U's are going to avoid relegation; on 17:23 - Mar 4 by bwildered |
The last time the U's were relegated from Div3 , League 1 was 1980/81.
U's record was thus,
P46. H. W12 , D7 , L4 , F 35 A 22 , A. W2, D4 , L17, F 10. A 43. PTS 39
Note this was the imperial age of 2points for a win .
However if converted to new metric, 3 points for a win, the U's attained 53 pts .
A respectable home record could not rescue the U's from a disastrous away record that led to a final position of third from bottom .
So more points on your travels please .
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bwildered - a really interesting and sobering stat.
Three more points needed tomorrow evening.
Up the U's | |
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