| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 03:24 - Apr 12 with 2373 views | Tummer_from_Texas |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 07:03 - Apr 11 by Tummer_from_Texas |
Maybe the fans have changed. Damn foreign bandwagoners. 
But in terms of this takeover, lets be honest, the fans are not as immediately important as whether or not this club has changed. And I'd disagree that this isn't the same club, in terms that matter most.
The best thing for Swansea City right now is that the individuals who have the most power over this are Jenkins, Morgan, Dineen, Van Zweeden, etc. I'm not saying those guys are Jesus and his Disciples, but the bulk of their entire lives and legacies are tied very heavily to this club and what has happened since 2002. It's earned them some degree of the benefit of the doubt, in my humble opinion, that they aren't going to all simultaneously decide that they don't give a crap where this goes now.
This thing has it's share of red flags in the form of this Levien character, but simple faith, perhaps blind but still earned, is the only reason I'm willing to at least keep an open mind at first. |
I would like to amend this opinion if I may. Thanks in advance.
This deal VERY likely SUCKS. If it happens, I pray I'm wrong and paranoid, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet on that.
And with more time to consider the fact that Martin Morgan is the only wealthy enough Swans owner to expect him to be able to walk away from a ridiculous return, and the other misrepresentations and BLAZING red flags in the form of Leviathan, my trust in those heroic guys I saw watching Jack To A King don't blind my eyes enough anymore.
This can't be about emotions and reactions. We have to stop this. [Post edited 12 Apr 2016 5:12]
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 03:34 - Apr 12 with 2364 views | SwansNZ |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 03:24 - Apr 12 by Tummer_from_Texas |
I would like to amend this opinion if I may. Thanks in advance.
This deal VERY likely SUCKS. If it happens, I pray I'm wrong and paranoid, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet on that.
And with more time to consider the fact that Martin Morgan is the only wealthy enough Swans owner to expect him to be able to walk away from a ridiculous return, and the other misrepresentations and BLAZING red flags in the form of Leviathan, my trust in those heroic guys I saw watching Jack To A King don't blind my eyes enough anymore.
This can't be about emotions and reactions. We have to stop this. [Post edited 12 Apr 2016 5:12]
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For the current shareholders to secure both their legacies within Swansea and gain a financial windfall, Shirley the only option is to only part sell to an investor willing to part own the club (not take TOTAL control). It would no doubt devalue their shares, but they’d still be worth a hell of a lot of money. Simplistic view, I know.
Re. MM — I don’t know his personal wealth, but I doubt he has sell, so then why sell? |  |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 09:16 - Apr 12 with 2179 views | MoscowJack |
Some could question what "benefits" or "returns" the Chairman and Vice Chairman might get further down the line if they manage to force through a deal with such an incredibly low valuation. I don't just mean keeping their jobs, getting mind-blowing salaries and all the perks either.
They could VERY well have a big upside when the club is sold on next time too. Double bubble!
One thing that's also occurred to me (maybe I'm the last to think of this!!) is that the new TV deal kicks on next season but many contracts will still be based on the lower deals. Everyone's saying how agents and players will suck all this extra money out of the clubs but they can only do that when player contracts are extended.
So, let's say just 25% of the players have new extended terms this season (including new signings) then that leaves 75% on older deals.
This means that we'll have a season or two (maybe 3?) of unbelievably huge income and not such a heavy wage-bill.
The new owners (please don't call them investors!!!!) will be able to show a wonderful turnaround in profit over their new tenure and spin the business off to whoever is out there willing to pay 200m or more at the time.
Nice profit for doing almost nothing which begs the question - WHY SELL NOW for such a low sum when it's obvious where the valuation of the club is going??? |  |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 09:30 - Apr 12 with 2147 views | Borojack |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 09:16 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
Some could question what "benefits" or "returns" the Chairman and Vice Chairman might get further down the line if they manage to force through a deal with such an incredibly low valuation. I don't just mean keeping their jobs, getting mind-blowing salaries and all the perks either.
They could VERY well have a big upside when the club is sold on next time too. Double bubble!
One thing that's also occurred to me (maybe I'm the last to think of this!!) is that the new TV deal kicks on next season but many contracts will still be based on the lower deals. Everyone's saying how agents and players will suck all this extra money out of the clubs but they can only do that when player contracts are extended.
So, let's say just 25% of the players have new extended terms this season (including new signings) then that leaves 75% on older deals.
This means that we'll have a season or two (maybe 3?) of unbelievably huge income and not such a heavy wage-bill.
The new owners (please don't call them investors!!!!) will be able to show a wonderful turnaround in profit over their new tenure and spin the business off to whoever is out there willing to pay 200m or more at the time.
Nice profit for doing almost nothing which begs the question - WHY SELL NOW for such a low sum when it's obvious where the valuation of the club is going??? |
Its obvious the shareholders had a scare this season and are cashing in now for less than what its worth.
You could compare it to cashing out with an on line bookie in play. |  |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 09:35 - Apr 12 with 2136 views | Private_Partz |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 09:16 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
Some could question what "benefits" or "returns" the Chairman and Vice Chairman might get further down the line if they manage to force through a deal with such an incredibly low valuation. I don't just mean keeping their jobs, getting mind-blowing salaries and all the perks either.
They could VERY well have a big upside when the club is sold on next time too. Double bubble!
One thing that's also occurred to me (maybe I'm the last to think of this!!) is that the new TV deal kicks on next season but many contracts will still be based on the lower deals. Everyone's saying how agents and players will suck all this extra money out of the clubs but they can only do that when player contracts are extended.
So, let's say just 25% of the players have new extended terms this season (including new signings) then that leaves 75% on older deals.
This means that we'll have a season or two (maybe 3?) of unbelievably huge income and not such a heavy wage-bill.
The new owners (please don't call them investors!!!!) will be able to show a wonderful turnaround in profit over their new tenure and spin the business off to whoever is out there willing to pay 200m or more at the time.
Nice profit for doing almost nothing which begs the question - WHY SELL NOW for such a low sum when it's obvious where the valuation of the club is going??? |
You weren't the last to think of the salaries MJ. Nathan Blake of all people mentioned it on Rob Phillips' Radio Cardiff phone in. I must admit I had not thought of that and assumed the agents and players would have got their hands on the lolly much sooner.
The reason for selling? The shareholders were scared sh!tless last season as they could see their million pound pay day floating down the Tawe. Hence as soon as we are safe (and I bet the stadium purchase is ready to go as well) they sell on to the the first in line.
I hope I am wrong and due diligence, c/w with protection for the club, is in place. I hope these guys genuinely want to improve the club and then sell on at a handsome profit to the next billionaire. There certainly would be mileage in them doing that and they would have plenty of offers from other ambitious clubs the if they made a fist of improving Swansea City. I ain't holding my breath on that one however. [Post edited 12 Apr 2016 9:58]
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| You have mission in life to hold out your hand,
To help the other guy out,
Help your fellow man.
Stan Ridgway
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 09:48 - Apr 12 with 2111 views | MoscowJack |
You're both right that the Board got scared of losing the geese that lays the golden eggs but this deal would only make sense if it was agreed and signed BEFORE we got to 40 points.
Now it should be worth 50% more....or even more than that! | |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 09:50 - Apr 12 with 2099 views | Clinton |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 03:34 - Apr 12 by SwansNZ |
For the current shareholders to secure both their legacies within Swansea and gain a financial windfall, Shirley the only option is to only part sell to an investor willing to part own the club (not take TOTAL control). It would no doubt devalue their shares, but they’d still be worth a hell of a lot of money. Simplistic view, I know.
Re. MM — I don’t know his personal wealth, but I doubt he has sell, so then why sell? |
Well the amount of abuse he gets on this forum alone would be a motivation. |  |
| If you can fill the unforgiving minute.
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son! |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 10:03 - Apr 12 with 2068 views | Private_Partz |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 09:48 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
You're both right that the Board got scared of losing the geese that lays the golden eggs but this deal would only make sense if it was agreed and signed BEFORE we got to 40 points.
Now it should be worth 50% more....or even more than that! |
Fair point but would we not be worth a lot less then 100m before we hit the safety mark (36 points for me)? Things were or pretty bleak in December when all this allegedly kicked off. Maybe a price was agreed at this time and applicable when we hit the 40 point mark. [Post edited 12 Apr 2016 10:05]
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| You have mission in life to hold out your hand,
To help the other guy out,
Help your fellow man.
Stan Ridgway
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 10:23 - Apr 12 with 2048 views | MoscowJack |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 10:03 - Apr 12 by Private_Partz |
Fair point but would we not be worth a lot less then 100m before we hit the safety mark (36 points for me)? Things were or pretty bleak in December when all this allegedly kicked off. Maybe a price was agreed at this time and applicable when we hit the 40 point mark. [Post edited 12 Apr 2016 10:05]
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Which makes this even more scary, if true.
Why would you agree a fixed fee based on 40 points attained but at such a low rate?
Anyone interested would be saying 100m now or 150m when 40 points attained. Doesn't make sense. The "discount" should be only if they are taking the risk of us not getting to 40 points. | |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 10:39 - Apr 12 with 2021 views | Uxbridge |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 09:16 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
Some could question what "benefits" or "returns" the Chairman and Vice Chairman might get further down the line if they manage to force through a deal with such an incredibly low valuation. I don't just mean keeping their jobs, getting mind-blowing salaries and all the perks either.
They could VERY well have a big upside when the club is sold on next time too. Double bubble!
One thing that's also occurred to me (maybe I'm the last to think of this!!) is that the new TV deal kicks on next season but many contracts will still be based on the lower deals. Everyone's saying how agents and players will suck all this extra money out of the clubs but they can only do that when player contracts are extended.
So, let's say just 25% of the players have new extended terms this season (including new signings) then that leaves 75% on older deals.
This means that we'll have a season or two (maybe 3?) of unbelievably huge income and not such a heavy wage-bill.
The new owners (please don't call them investors!!!!) will be able to show a wonderful turnaround in profit over their new tenure and spin the business off to whoever is out there willing to pay 200m or more at the time.
Nice profit for doing almost nothing which begs the question - WHY SELL NOW for such a low sum when it's obvious where the valuation of the club is going??? |
I strongly suspect that agents were more than aware of the increase in TV revenues and negotiated an increase in future wages to be factored in. There may be some extra scope for the club, but the existing squad will get their cut, I don't doubt that for a second. |  |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 10:58 - Apr 12 with 1989 views | Private_Partz |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 10:23 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
Which makes this even more scary, if true.
Why would you agree a fixed fee based on 40 points attained but at such a low rate?
Anyone interested would be saying 100m now or 150m when 40 points attained. Doesn't make sense. The "discount" should be only if they are taking the risk of us not getting to 40 points. |
They were scared and the Yanks had them by the whatsits? ;-)
Edit: I just thought that if things are not signed up yet which seems. It is likely it could start a bidding war if there are any other interested parties out there. [Post edited 12 Apr 2016 11:02]
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| You have mission in life to hold out your hand,
To help the other guy out,
Help your fellow man.
Stan Ridgway
|
| |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 11:05 - Apr 12 with 1974 views | Clinton |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 10:23 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
Which makes this even more scary, if true.
Why would you agree a fixed fee based on 40 points attained but at such a low rate?
Anyone interested would be saying 100m now or 150m when 40 points attained. Doesn't make sense. The "discount" should be only if they are taking the risk of us not getting to 40 points. |
Let's face it, this club was pretty much worthless at Christmas. | |
| If you can fill the unforgiving minute.
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son! |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 11:17 - Apr 12 with 1960 views | MoscowJack |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 11:05 - Apr 12 by Clinton |
Let's face it, this club was pretty much worthless at Christmas. |
Which is why a 100m deal, signed and agreed at the time, would be more understandable. Why wait til 40 points for a 100m deal?
Doesn't make sense. | |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 11:23 - Apr 12 with 1944 views | 3swan |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 11:17 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
Which is why a 100m deal, signed and agreed at the time, would be more understandable. Why wait til 40 points for a 100m deal?
Doesn't make sense. |
The only reason that would be understandable is that the buyers wouldn't buy without a guarantee of Premier football next season.
A sale price is only as good as the price the buyer will pay | | | |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 11:45 - Apr 12 with 1906 views | MoscowJack |
So if the guarantee of PL football is there, shouldn't the price reflect the PL status next season then? | |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 11:54 - Apr 12 with 1862 views | dougie |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 11:45 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
So if the guarantee of PL football is there, shouldn't the price reflect the PL status next season then? |
I would think so yes. It doesn't seem to though. | | | |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:12 - Apr 12 with 1833 views | Borojack |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 11:45 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
So if the guarantee of PL football is there, shouldn't the price reflect the PL status next season then? |
What does it matter if the club goes for 100 ,125 even 200 million.
None of it will be going back into the club unless you believe the investment crap that they are trying to sell. | |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:20 - Apr 12 with 1814 views | MoscowJack |
I would agree if the sale price was low to allow the difference to be REALLY invested, but that's not the case as we all know.
What angers me is that we are/were one of only two clubs (along with West Brom) who were ripe for a rich benefactor who wasn't going to be in for a short-term spin and sell.
With the rich Chinese seemingly to have been given the green light to invest in football from their Government (who own a decent % Man City themselves), why couldn't certain people wait for a better deal?
Maybe it's because the people driving the deal got a nice deal for themselves in the new set up so they'll make fortunes again when the next deal happens.
And that next deal will be FAR more lucrative with the Trust's shares diluted and them out of the way!!!
Makes me sick! | |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:28 - Apr 12 with 1800 views | Legend83 |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:20 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
I would agree if the sale price was low to allow the difference to be REALLY invested, but that's not the case as we all know.
What angers me is that we are/were one of only two clubs (along with West Brom) who were ripe for a rich benefactor who wasn't going to be in for a short-term spin and sell.
With the rich Chinese seemingly to have been given the green light to invest in football from their Government (who own a decent % Man City themselves), why couldn't certain people wait for a better deal?
Maybe it's because the people driving the deal got a nice deal for themselves in the new set up so they'll make fortunes again when the next deal happens.
And that next deal will be FAR more lucrative with the Trust's shares diluted and them out of the way!!!
Makes me sick! |
MJ
How are you so sure it will be a quick spin-and-sell (apart from going on past history)?
How will they make returns on £70m of capital so quickly? The most lucrative would be a re-sale in the future at a much higher price but this would be reliant on:
a) the Swans still being in the PL (preferably performing well)
b) the next round of TV rights issues
c) a continued low level of debt
I am sure there would be other ways to create income streams elsewhere but nothing of the scale of a re-sale (which is their preferred modus). A successful re-sale 4-5 years down the line would require them to be as engaged in the success of the club as anybody, helped by HJ remaining as Chairman.
Hey, by then they might be die-hard Swans fans anyway and will do it all pro-bono...!  | | | |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:35 - Apr 12 with 1784 views | MoscowJack |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:28 - Apr 12 by Legend83 |
MJ
How are you so sure it will be a quick spin-and-sell (apart from going on past history)?
How will they make returns on £70m of capital so quickly? The most lucrative would be a re-sale in the future at a much higher price but this would be reliant on:
a) the Swans still being in the PL (preferably performing well)
b) the next round of TV rights issues
c) a continued low level of debt
I am sure there would be other ways to create income streams elsewhere but nothing of the scale of a re-sale (which is their preferred modus). A successful re-sale 4-5 years down the line would require them to be as engaged in the success of the club as anybody, helped by HJ remaining as Chairman.
Hey, by then they might be die-hard Swans fans anyway and will do it all pro-bono...! |
They could probably sell this summer for a 50% increase if they found the right buyer.
With so many Chinese now looking at the PL, it's more than possible.
I think they'll last two years and sell on the dream of the next TV deal, but who know what could happen to increase the perceived value when you consider they might buy the stadium, etc.
If they had bought at the top end of the valuation, I might be more inclined to agree with you but their history (especially Levien's) doesn't suggest that he sticks around anywhere for long. | |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:40 - Apr 12 with 1757 views | 3swan |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 11:45 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
So if the guarantee of PL football is there, shouldn't the price reflect the PL status next season then? |
You would think so, but as I said the price is only as good as the price someone will pay.
If there were others around looking to buy then the price or terms would be more favourable.
If someone wants out now and only one buyer, it's a buyers market | | | |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:43 - Apr 12 with 1751 views | MoscowJack |
But the desperation to sell was only from a handful and WHY would they accept such a low evaluation if the deal was dependent on PL status next season anyway?
Just because there is A deal on the table, it doesn't mean that you HAVE to accept it......unless you're desperate. | |
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| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:43 - Apr 12 with 1744 views | 3swan |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:43 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
But the desperation to sell was only from a handful and WHY would they accept such a low evaluation if the deal was dependent on PL status next season anyway?
Just because there is A deal on the table, it doesn't mean that you HAVE to accept it......unless you're desperate. |
I think you've answered your own question (imo) | | | |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:44 - Apr 12 with 1736 views | Private_Partz |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:35 - Apr 12 by MoscowJack |
They could probably sell this summer for a 50% increase if they found the right buyer.
With so many Chinese now looking at the PL, it's more than possible.
I think they'll last two years and sell on the dream of the next TV deal, but who know what could happen to increase the perceived value when you consider they might buy the stadium, etc.
If they had bought at the top end of the valuation, I might be more inclined to agree with you but their history (especially Levien's) doesn't suggest that he sticks around anywhere for long. |
Legend is looking in the bright side and the truth is we just don't know. I don't think mass protests boycotts and 'Yanks Out' banners will be the answer. Having said that I hope we will have a much better idea of what is going on by the Liverpool game. I think a few banner such as 'share buyers beware. This is our club. Do the right thing' would not go amiss. My composition is clumsy but I am sure you get my drift.
Other than that all we can do is suck it and see. Watch what is going on in fine detail and I am more than confident we will be doing that. We can't stop a takeover happening but Hell can still break loose if things start going wrong. | |
| You have mission in life to hold out your hand,
To help the other guy out,
Help your fellow man.
Stan Ridgway
|
| |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:47 - Apr 12 with 1719 views | Legend83 |
| Trust Statement regarding potential takeover of Swansea City Football Club on 12:44 - Apr 12 by Private_Partz |
Legend is looking in the bright side and the truth is we just don't know. I don't think mass protests boycotts and 'Yanks Out' banners will be the answer. Having said that I hope we will have a much better idea of what is going on by the Liverpool game. I think a few banner such as 'share buyers beware. This is our club. Do the right thing' would not go amiss. My composition is clumsy but I am sure you get my drift.
Other than that all we can do is suck it and see. Watch what is going on in fine detail and I am more than confident we will be doing that. We can't stop a takeover happening but Hell can still break loose if things start going wrong. |
I tend to agee.
If this is a foregone conclusion the last thing us supporters need to do is drive a wedge between us and the new owners at such an early stage. Give them time to show us they can fulfill our needs as well as theirs, bash them if they don't.
Don't give them the negative mindset to "f*ck the fans" from the start. | | | |
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