| Irish General Election 15:42 - Feb 9 with 16507 views | BrianMcCarthy |
Seismic shift to the left in Ireland today.
Exit polls suggesting that left parties are heading for 45% of the vote.
So many fascinating issues arising now:
Are Sinn Féin now on a par with the right-wing monoliths of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael?
Will either of them get into coalition-bed with Sinn Féin?
Can Sinn Féin be trusted in Government?
Have Sinn Féin left violence behind?
Will Ireland, could Ireland, actually have a Left-Wing Government in the near future?
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| Irish General Election on 17:41 - Feb 25 with 1806 views | MrSheen |
| Irish General Election on 14:35 - Feb 25 by JimmyR |
Ironically the partitionist nature of Irish politics also benefits Sinn Féin. Most voters in the Republic pay little attention to day-to-day northern politics. But what people are aware of is that since 2017 Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have been demanding that Sinn Féin return to government with the Democratic Unionist party in Belfast. It seems strange then to assert that it is unfit for power in the Republic. Indeed if the IRA army council is really running Sinn Féin, then how does DUP leader Arlene Foster (a woman whose father was actually shot by the IRA), share power with them in Northern Ireland?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/25/sinn-fein-party-two-party- |
Power-sharing is a requirement of the assembly isn’t it? She can’t refuse to work with SF if she wants power herself, given they are by far the largest parties, however baffling that is. Though they both ignored each other for three years. The fact that they did and no serious consequences followed shows the assembly is only a toy town parliament with real power held elsewhere. The Dail is the real thing (despite the contempt some of its new members have for the “Free State”). |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 11:29 - Jun 28 with 1536 views | WatfordR |
So, not such a seismic shift after all.
Can't say it seems that this new government has much to do with the democratic will. Three parties power sharing and one of them isn't the party that won the GE. |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 13:57 - Jun 28 with 1463 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Irish General Election on 11:29 - Jun 28 by WatfordR |
So, not such a seismic shift after all.
Can't say it seems that this new government has much to do with the democratic will. Three parties power sharing and one of them isn't the party that won the GE. |
Sinn Fein got 24.5% of the votes. The three parties now in government got 50.2% of the votes. Sounds more or less democratic to me.
(BTW The only time in my lifetime that a UK govt got more than 50% of the votes was 2010 when the Cons and LDs got 59% between them. Thatcher '79 and '83, Blair'97 and Johnson '19 got "landslides" with 42-43% each)
Of course you can say that as SF came first they should definitely be in the govt but then their whole premise was that only they were going to radically change things. If 75% of the electorate say "no thanks" it's completely undemocratic to say "go ahead, less than a quarter of the country support you and over 43% supported the two parties you said were exactly the same as each other, clearly you represent the nation"
You get the same on the right with AfD in Germany - it's a shock when they get 15-20% of the vote and the media shout "look, everyone in Germany voted AfD" - no they bloody didn't, 80% voted for someone else and the whole point of calling yourself the "Alternative for Germany" is that you say everyone who doesn't vote for you is lumped in one blob. Well, if they are, suck it up, they beat you hands down. If you say "no, we deserve the right to form a coalition and be in government" then drop all the lying about how you are different and show how you are going to compromise, because that's what coalition means. |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 15:20 - Jun 28 with 1407 views | WatfordR |
| Irish General Election on 13:57 - Jun 28 by CiderwithRsie |
Sinn Fein got 24.5% of the votes. The three parties now in government got 50.2% of the votes. Sounds more or less democratic to me.
(BTW The only time in my lifetime that a UK govt got more than 50% of the votes was 2010 when the Cons and LDs got 59% between them. Thatcher '79 and '83, Blair'97 and Johnson '19 got "landslides" with 42-43% each)
Of course you can say that as SF came first they should definitely be in the govt but then their whole premise was that only they were going to radically change things. If 75% of the electorate say "no thanks" it's completely undemocratic to say "go ahead, less than a quarter of the country support you and over 43% supported the two parties you said were exactly the same as each other, clearly you represent the nation"
You get the same on the right with AfD in Germany - it's a shock when they get 15-20% of the vote and the media shout "look, everyone in Germany voted AfD" - no they bloody didn't, 80% voted for someone else and the whole point of calling yourself the "Alternative for Germany" is that you say everyone who doesn't vote for you is lumped in one blob. Well, if they are, suck it up, they beat you hands down. If you say "no, we deserve the right to form a coalition and be in government" then drop all the lying about how you are different and show how you are going to compromise, because that's what coalition means. |
Of course you're right about the perception of landslides where less than 50% of the votes were cast for the majority party. That percentage shrinks even further when you take into account the total electorate, not just the ones who voted.
I suppose my point is that the Irish election showed a swing towards the left and the promise of change and that swing has more or less been ignored. Unless you believe the Green Party will be allowed to play much part in policy making.
I'm not particularly flying the SF flag either, and I certainly would never have supported UKIP and their policies. However, I always felt uncomfortable with the 2015 GE, where 3.6m votes for UKIP gave them 1 seat, while less than 1.5m votes gave SNP 50 seats. And look at the subsequent sh1tstorm that caused the UK. | | | |
| Irish General Election (n/t) on 16:31 - Jun 28 with 1348 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
[Post edited 1 Jul 2020 12:35]
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| Irish General Election on 17:46 - Jun 28 with 1303 views | BrianMcCarthy |
There was a swing to the Left but ultimately the Left couldn't form a Government. The right, with the help of the Greens could, and did. I don't like it but it is democracy so no complaints. | |
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| Irish General Election on 11:37 - Jun 29 with 1189 views | robith |
The Greens looking at Labour in 2016 thinking "Ooooo, Pasokification! I'll have what she's having!" |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 11:44 - Jun 29 with 1180 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 11:37 - Jun 29 by robith |
The Greens looking at Labour in 2016 thinking "Ooooo, Pasokification! I'll have what she's having!" |
Ya, really tough call for the Greens. Prop up right-wing Government or stay out and watch the Environment suffer more. I felt for them.
Meanwhile, Micheál Martin is our new Taoiseach having led his party to an historic low of 14% in the polls and the insanely popular Varadker in a cynical and cowardly political act decides he doesn't want to lead now because it might be a bit tough and people mightn't like him. | |
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| Irish General Election on 12:27 - Jun 29 with 1141 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Irish General Election on 11:44 - Jun 29 by BrianMcCarthy |
Ya, really tough call for the Greens. Prop up right-wing Government or stay out and watch the Environment suffer more. I felt for them.
Meanwhile, Micheál Martin is our new Taoiseach having led his party to an historic low of 14% in the polls and the insanely popular Varadker in a cynical and cowardly political act decides he doesn't want to lead now because it might be a bit tough and people mightn't like him. |
I'd say the secret is to fix on one or two flagship policies that their voters want and absolutely refuse to budge on them.
Is Varadker still that popular? Seems odd when his party has just gone from first to third in vote share at the election (which tbh seems a good enough reason for FF to rule him out as Taoiseach) but perhaps that's all changed with Covid? | | | |
| Irish General Election on 12:31 - Jun 29 with 1133 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 12:27 - Jun 29 by CiderwithRsie |
I'd say the secret is to fix on one or two flagship policies that their voters want and absolutely refuse to budge on them.
Is Varadker still that popular? Seems odd when his party has just gone from first to third in vote share at the election (which tbh seems a good enough reason for FF to rule him out as Taoiseach) but perhaps that's all changed with Covid? |
Ya, it changed massively during Covid. His personal rating is 75% and he was the clear favourite of the people to continue as Taoiseach. If he wanted it, he could have demanded it. | |
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| Irish General Election on 12:44 - Jun 29 with 1113 views | EastR |
| Irish General Election on 11:44 - Jun 29 by BrianMcCarthy |
Ya, really tough call for the Greens. Prop up right-wing Government or stay out and watch the Environment suffer more. I felt for them.
Meanwhile, Micheál Martin is our new Taoiseach having led his party to an historic low of 14% in the polls and the insanely popular Varadker in a cynical and cowardly political act decides he doesn't want to lead now because it might be a bit tough and people mightn't like him. |
I thought the FF share of the first preference votes was higher Brian, 22%? The Greens have a bit of history with FF having propped up Ahern and then Cowen after the 2007 election, even if they did eventually pull the plug. Mind you they did pay dearly next time out and if they get out muscled again that’s likely to repeat.
SF only have themselves to blame for being on the sidelines now for not running more candidates | |
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| Irish General Election on 12:59 - Jun 29 with 1101 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 12:44 - Jun 29 by EastR |
I thought the FF share of the first preference votes was higher Brian, 22%? The Greens have a bit of history with FF having propped up Ahern and then Cowen after the 2007 election, even if they did eventually pull the plug. Mind you they did pay dearly next time out and if they get out muscled again that’s likely to repeat.
SF only have themselves to blame for being on the sidelines now for not running more candidates |
You're right, EastR, FF were in the low twenties but they're down at 14% now. It's a staggering collapse. | |
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| Irish General Election on 13:05 - Jun 29 with 1093 views | Phildo |
| Irish General Election on 11:44 - Jun 29 by BrianMcCarthy |
Ya, really tough call for the Greens. Prop up right-wing Government or stay out and watch the Environment suffer more. I felt for them.
Meanwhile, Micheál Martin is our new Taoiseach having led his party to an historic low of 14% in the polls and the insanely popular Varadker in a cynical and cowardly political act decides he doesn't want to lead now because it might be a bit tough and people mightn't like him. |
I always felt Leo has had his eye on being a future EU president or a job like that. Interesting to see how the next few years goes. FF in government but not necessarily in power. |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 13:16 - Jun 29 with 1076 views | MrSheen |
Brian, is stopping the burning of peat going to be part of the coalition programme? I can see massive trouble in the country if they try to take free fuel away from people who consider it an ancient entitlement. | | | |
| Irish General Election on 13:21 - Jun 29 with 1060 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 13:05 - Jun 29 by Phildo |
I always felt Leo has had his eye on being a future EU president or a job like that. Interesting to see how the next few years goes. FF in government but not necessarily in power. |
Could well be, or a return to medicine?
I like the last line! | |
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| Irish General Election on 13:22 - Jun 29 with 1057 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 13:16 - Jun 29 by MrSheen |
Brian, is stopping the burning of peat going to be part of the coalition programme? I can see massive trouble in the country if they try to take free fuel away from people who consider it an ancient entitlement. |
Good question. I'll try to find out, Sheen.
Update
Seems not, Sheen. the Programme for Government talks about supporting a transition away from peat, but not a hard stop. [Post edited 29 Jun 2020 13:28]
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| Irish General Election on 13:45 - Jun 29 with 1024 views | MrSheen |
| Irish General Election on 13:22 - Jun 29 by BrianMcCarthy |
Good question. I'll try to find out, Sheen.
Update
Seems not, Sheen. the Programme for Government talks about supporting a transition away from peat, but not a hard stop. [Post edited 29 Jun 2020 13:28]
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Thanks Brian. I read somewhere that it would be very difficult for Ireland to reach the CO2 reduction targets Varadkar has set without going after peat. Although it only affects the country, I can see it being worse than water charges if they try. | | | |
| Irish General Election on 14:08 - Jun 29 with 1013 views | derbyhoop |
Meanwhile UK MSM and right-wing twitterati insist that Varadkar didn't get re-elected because of his stance over Brexit. That's clearly not true. |  |
| Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one’s lifetime. (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop |
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| Irish General Election on 15:42 - Jun 29 with 966 views | robith |
| Irish General Election on 14:08 - Jun 29 by derbyhoop |
Meanwhile UK MSM and right-wing twitterati insist that Varadkar didn't get re-elected because of his stance over Brexit. That's clearly not true. |
The UK press is illiterate about Irish politics. I mean at one point Harry Cole, someone who is head of politics at MoS, previously The Sun (and former Guido and BoJo's cuck, natch) wrote that Leo was "bending over to impress the Shinners" and I'm like ......err what? Look at the history of Fine Gael mate! It's on wikipedia! | | | |
| Irish General Election on 16:06 - Jun 29 with 952 views | Phildo |
| Irish General Election on 15:42 - Jun 29 by robith |
The UK press is illiterate about Irish politics. I mean at one point Harry Cole, someone who is head of politics at MoS, previously The Sun (and former Guido and BoJo's cuck, natch) wrote that Leo was "bending over to impress the Shinners" and I'm like ......err what? Look at the history of Fine Gael mate! It's on wikipedia! |
Dan Hodges (admittedly a WUM) said something similar this weekend | | | |
| Irish General Election on 16:12 - Jun 29 with 950 views | robith |
| Irish General Election on 16:06 - Jun 29 by Phildo |
Dan Hodges (admittedly a WUM) said something similar this weekend |
Hodges man. Has a career intentionally saying things that are wrong and getting dunked on. What a gig | | | |
| Irish General Election on 16:36 - Jun 29 with 937 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 14:08 - Jun 29 by derbyhoop |
Meanwhile UK MSM and right-wing twitterati insist that Varadkar didn't get re-elected because of his stance over Brexit. That's clearly not true. |
Wasn't even a factor. | |
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| Irish General Election on 16:40 - Jun 29 with 926 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 15:42 - Jun 29 by robith |
The UK press is illiterate about Irish politics. I mean at one point Harry Cole, someone who is head of politics at MoS, previously The Sun (and former Guido and BoJo's cuck, natch) wrote that Leo was "bending over to impress the Shinners" and I'm like ......err what? Look at the history of Fine Gael mate! It's on wikipedia! |
Excellent.
Also has a history of overestimating the importance of Britain to foreigners.
Brexit was a factor for only 1-2% of voters, as I remember it. | |
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| Irish General Election on 19:37 - Jun 29 with 1425 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Irish General Election on 15:42 - Jun 29 by robith |
The UK press is illiterate about Irish politics. I mean at one point Harry Cole, someone who is head of politics at MoS, previously The Sun (and former Guido and BoJo's cuck, natch) wrote that Leo was "bending over to impress the Shinners" and I'm like ......err what? Look at the history of Fine Gael mate! It's on wikipedia! |
On the whole UK media is illiterate about all foreign politics (except possibly US) and tends to see them as extensions of British politics, but it's specially bad about Ireland.
I'd say the reaction to the Irish GE varied through:
(a) Who cares?
(b) WTF!! Sinn Fein? It's the bloody IRA!
(c) (from the left media) Yay! Corbynite surge in Ireland!
I don't claim to know much but guess all of the above are wrong. | | | |
| Irish General Election on 20:23 - Jun 29 with 1381 views | kensalriser |
I always felt I didn't understand Irish politics as I could never figure out the difference between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. Eventually of course I learnt there isn't one. |  |
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